The joke around our virtual office this morning was that the nasdaq is not just strong as an index, the stock itself really stands out!
The exchanges and "marketplaces" are really shining. The relative strength compared to many other sectors and industry groups is off the charts (see what I did there?)
Take a look at names like CME Group, Market Access and Tradeweb. These names keep popping up on our relative strength scans, especially compared to other types of "financials". But let's be serious, these are tech stocks.
This is the chart of the Nasdaq that has our attention:
Thanks to everyone for participating in this week’s Mystery Chart. The responses were pretty mixed with most wanting to do nothing for now and wait for a retest of the recent highs or lows before taking action.
While it's hard not to like this uptrend over the long-term, doing nothing in the near-term is more or less the camp we're in as well.
With that as our backdrop let's discuss why this chart is important and on our radar right now.
This is a daily line chart of the All Star Charts Custom MAGA Index, which is an equally weighted index of the four largest stocks in the US Equity Market, measured by market capitalization.
Since I've got a little positive delta building in my portfolio and I'm leaning towards the market feeling a bit overextended here, I'm adding a little negative delta in an index to help balance the risks in my portfolio a bit.
And of course, it makes the most sense to get short the weakest (in relative terms) index to express this hedge.
Today, we put out a post outlining why we are bearish on Small-Cap stocks and want to be shorting the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Read it here as it sets the stage for this post.
Small-caps are the weakest area of US Equities. That's why we are expressing our bearish view on stocks via the Russell 2000 as opposed to one of the large-cap indexes, all of which the Russell has severely underperformed for several years now.
In line with our top-down approach, we don't just want to short an index. We are believers that playing the averages results in average returns.
For this reason, we've drilled into the Russell 2000, looked at every single chart and picked out the weakest names we could find with clearly defined risk management levels to limit us to the smallest of losses in the case these names mean-revert higher.
Adam Koos is a portfolio manager who uses Technical Analysis to make decisions for the clients he advises. In times like these, Financial Advisors all over the world are getting asked the hard questions. In this episode, Adam talks about how Technical Analysis has helped both his decision making and the communication with the families he works for. It's really cool to see these tools helping advisors everywhere, and especially a friend who I speak to regularly about markets and other common interests, like sports and wine.
The Global Equity Market collapsed and the S&P 500 fell 35% soon after, blowing a hole in the long-term uptrend in most major indexes around the world.
On our monthly conference call this week, we talked a lot about key levels in the most important asset classes in the world.
As promised, here's a run down of the 20 items on our checklist. I promise you the world is not ending if there are an overwhelming amount of yeses on this list.
Let's use this as a risk management gauge. I think this will help us answer the question of, How defensive should we be?
We made a spreadsheet internally for this and we'll send you regular updates and keep discussing this list as new data comes in.
In yesterday's Chart Summit, we presented our view on the major asset classes around the globe and noted what we need to see before getting bullish Equities again. (You can watch the full videos of all the presenters for free.)
Unfortunately, current conditions suggest continued volatility so we're looking for short setups to take advantage of it in the coming days/weeks.
Let's take a look at our broader thesis and what stocks and indexes we're shorting to express it in the market.
Today's Chart of the Day, High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs Short-Term Treasuries (IEI), is one of our favorite risk-appetite ratios.
Credit Market investors favor High Yield Bonds over Treasury Bonds during the "good times" - periods of strong economic growth, rising rates, etc. On the other hand, we know treasuries are a safe-have asset and outperform in environments where investors are uncertain and want a place to park their capital until the smoke clears.
Say what you will about stock market action since the equities bottom was put in on March 23rd, but either way you can't not be impressed.
Do we go higher from here?
I don't know the answer (hint: neither do you), but I do know that if we do, we're going to be continually led by the leaders in this bounce so far. And one of those leaders is the stock who's company everyone uses -- in some way -- whether you realize it or not: Google.