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Looking Inside The Indexes To Find Trends & Identify Leadership

January 28, 2021

Years ago, early in our marriage, my wife and I went to a car dealership with her dad to make one of those all important, young couple purchases: a new car.

While my wife and her father were chatting with the salesman, I was all over the car pushing every button, pulling every lever and opening every compartment. I wanted to know what was what, where things were, and how it all fit together. The three of them were a bit taken aback as I moved from the front seat to the back, methodically finding knobs and uncovering compartments that the salesman didn’t even know existed.

Our marriage survived that episode and I've got a great relationship with my father-in-law but we didn't buy the car.

I am a tinkerer by nature. My dad once rebuilt a motorcycle engine in the living room of the small apartment he shared with my mom shortly after they were married. The point is, I like to know how things work. I'm not afraid to pull something apart, look at the insides, and then put it back together. I always use all the screws and only rarely does a spring or ball bearing go missing.

So when it comes to the markets, I’m also interested in pulling indexes apart...

What Can We Short Here?

January 28, 2021

We noticed a weakening momentum in several indices across the globe even as big talk of 'Budget correction' started to gain traction. In order to benefit from the short-term negative move, we identified strong and weak sectors over a short-term time frame. For the first time in a long time, we also shared a bearish trade idea in our Trade of The Week post.

Today we're going to look at some more short setups that are on our radar, in order to benefit from the dip in momentum we're witnessing.

Read on to know more.

 

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[Premium] 2 to 100 Club (01-27-2021)

January 28, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice we are only...

Does The Energy Sector Need A Surge Protector?

January 27, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We updated our Breadth chartbook a few days ago which Premium Members can check out here.

There are literally hundreds of charts with various breadth indicators from new high/low and overbought/oversold percentages to A/D lines, and more for not only the major averages and indexes but also each Large-Cap Sector SPDR.

What's this month's takeaway after spending a morning digging through our expanded workbook (that's right, there's more)?

Market internals continue to be a tailwind for stocks as we saw an improvement in the vast majority of our metrics again this month.

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Global Market Breadth Approaching Critical Levels

January 27, 2021

The Percent of global markets trading above their 50-day average is faltering. It's dropped to 78% (83% for Developed Markets & 74% for Emerging Markets). Below 70% is a warning for the market, below 40% is usually bad news.

Check out the Chart:

You can download this week's full Sentiment here:

Please let me know if you have any questions.

JC

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China Deep Dive

January 26, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

We continue to experience a bullish expansion in participation from stock markets around the world.

Just a few days ago we discussed buying Israeli stocks and explained how their strength at the index level was being driven by their heavy exposure to Technology.

Mega-Cap Growth and Tech stocks (we're including Communications and Discretionary here -- "Tech but not Tech" names such as Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD.Com, etc.) are also a dominant market force in China.

We wrote about this exact topic in November, and how strength from these names would likely continue to propel these Large-Cap Chinese Indexes and ETFs higher. The Chinese Tech ETF $CQQQ and iShares Large-Cap China ETF $FXI tacked on an additional 24% and 12%, respectively in the time since.

Now, we're seeing FXI back to its key former highs and attempting to break out of a decade-plus base. ...

[Podcast] Sector Rotation w/ Jonathan Krinsky

January 26, 2021

This week on the podcast, Jonathan Krinsky joins me for a chat about Sector Rotation. While the Mega-cap names like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft grinded sideways, or even down, since August, the Small-caps, Mid-caps and Micro-cap names have been the leaders. What happens if the Mega-caps break out of these bases to new all-time highs? Does the sector rotation continue? Or do we then rotate into the more defensive areas like Staples, Utilities and REITs, which currently keep making new relative lows?

Where does the US Dollar fit into all this? Will a Dollar rally bust the party and end the rotation into International equities and Commodities? We discussed all of this and so much more in a very short period of time. Jonathan Krinsky is the Chief Market Technician at Bay Crest Partners and puts out research for many long/short equity fund managers. He's a CMT like me and we've known each other for many...

Buy, Sell Or Remain In Cash?

January 26, 2021

The market had given us an indication of a weakening short-term momentum at the end of last week. We thought this would be a good time to go through the sectoral indices to identify strengths and weaknesses.

Read on to know more.

 

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[Premium] Details For February Monthly Strategy Session

January 25, 2021

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday February 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

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This International Action "Is-Raeli" Bullish

January 25, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Last week's Mystery Chart was the Israeli Tel Aviv 125 Index zoomed all the way back to the start of this century.

You might be wondering why we're discussing Israeli equities of all things...

The short answer: They're making new all-time highs.

In this post, we explore the sector that is mainly responsible for these gains, dive into its strongest components, and outline some long ideas with risk/reward setups skewed in our favor.

Not only is this yet another group of stocks we can use to express our bullish thesis on risk assets -- it is also excellent information. Once again, we're seeing another development pointing to the increasing participation and improving breadth across international equity markets.

This move in Israeli equities also fits into a larger theme that is taking place beneath the surface for stocks all around the world. It's difficult to overstate the significance of these moves.

In short, we believe this is one of the...