There's always information in the Currency markets, even if trading currencies isn't something you do.
There is wisdom in some of the world's largest markets like forex and fixed income. To ignore it would be irresponsible.
One thing that's been hard to ignore is the strength in the US Dollar Index throughout the first quarter of 2021. This could be a potential wrecking ball to the global growth, rotation into cyclical and commodity supercycle themes.
But is it?
When we look at several G-10 Currencies relative to the Dollar, the Commodity-centric currencies have held up the best, which is interesting, isn't it?
Baseball is back -- another sign that life is returning to normal.
I’m already thinking about heading to the ballpark to see the Brewers play in person (even though my son isn’t thrilled that they changed the name from Miller Park to American Family Field).
I wasn't much of a baseball fan growing up. In fact, I never progressed beyond Tee-ball. Washington didn't have a team at the time and rooting for the team from Baltimore seemed to be out of the question. After moving to Milwaukee as an adult, I was surprised to hear the actor from "Mr. Belvedere" calling the games on the radio. Little did I know that Bob Uecker, a Milwaukee legend, was a baseball guy first and an actor second.
Despite my lack of on-field experience, I’ve enjoyed watching my son progress through the Little League ranks.
We've been observing Aluminum for some time now and also included it in our Three Charts for the Week post, and the move seems to have picked up the pace.
Aluminum has been leading the base metals space for a while since Copper took a back seat, and we're now seeing the follow-through of that action in the price breakout.
JC and I put together this months Options Conference call and it was one of my favorites yet!
We discussed positions we closed out in Google in Biotechs, as well as some of the trades we have on that are worth an update. There are a few new ideas on our radar and we get into some of that as well so you can get a little bit of a behind the scenes look at our thought process.
Key takeaway: Despite the decreasing exposure of active equity managers, the weight of the evidence continues to lean toward a neutral sentiment backdrop that supports a much needed reset, allowing optimism to rebuild moving forward. Investment managers may be pulling back from the market, but equity ETF inflows have reached record levels. This past month inflows reached over $80 billion, the highest level over a one month period. This may suggest excessive investor positioning but inflows can remain high for extended periods of time before negatively impacting the market. Another piece of information that points to growing optimism is The Consensus Inc. Bullish Sentiment Index as it reached 74% last week, it’s highest level since early 2018. These pockets of investor optimism, within the broader neutral setting, allude to the nature of the recent unwind.
Sentiment Chart of the Week: Economic Activity and Risk Appetite
Two weeks back we had noticed IT putting its head again from underground and shared some actionable ideas. As the market progresses, we're noticing new names joining this list and thought it would be nice to have a follow-up post for the same.
Let's see what these stocks are indicating for the weeks and months ahead.
HCL Tech has now joined the other stocks in this sector as it attempts to move past its overhead supply zone of 1,024. Retreating from the same level twice in the recent past, we might see a follow-through this time around as the tailwinds favouring IT could favour this particular stock as well. The indicator is attempting to move back into the strong zone.
We are bullish above the level of 1,024 with a target near 1,425.
Key Takeaway: The overall market continues to digest gains within a larger structural advance. Market sectors that relate to tangible goods push to new highs. Traditional safe-haven assets fail to ensure safety.
Financial, Energy, Industrial, and Material sectors continue their reign in our relative strength rankings, while mid-cap groups narrowly surpassed small-caps to command the top-tier of our industry group rankings. Though more defensive sectors continue to have the best relative strength on a short-term basis, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are starting to pick up in the near term as well. Small-cap deterioration persists at the industry group level, whereas large and mid-caps improve.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley.
We held our April Monthly Strategy Session Thursday night which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
For these calls, we really take a step back and put things in the context of their structural trends by focusing only on Monthly charts. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises.
In this post, we’ll provide a summary of the call by highlighting three of the most important charts and topics we covered along with commentary on each.
Welcomeback to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ended April 2, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.
In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Signals act as indicators for what's to come or what we can expect. If you look closely, there are several signals that can be picked up from the market in order to stay ahead of the curve. A lot of analysis goes into arriving at the bottom of the funnel that is stock selection.
While the bigger trends are in place and their relative analysis helps us understand their strength and weaknesses, there are certain signals that can be picked up on a regular trading day as well.
Once again this month, I'm going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of March. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all exited in accordance with the plan as laid out.