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[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

July 29, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We got a breadth thrust this week as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making new 20-day highs edged above 55% on Thursday. This might not be the most well-known of the various breadth thrusts, but it’s the one I lean on most heavily. It’s part of our bull market re-birth checklist and watched by market pros. It’s not an all clear signal or a guarantee that the market will not go down. The market stumbled after the July 2011 signal and the performance in the wake of the March 2002 signal was ugly. But overall, this tended to point to improving conditions and indicate that the market may more easily move up and to the right. I have reservations right now (we continue to see more new lows than new highs) and I believe much of the rally off the June lows has been built on a premise that will prove false. But the data are what they are. To quote Walter Deemer, “Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy.” Breadth thrusts signal...

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[Options Premium] Couldn't Rally, Lower is Likely.

July 29, 2022

We've experienced a pretty powerful bear market rally on the heels of yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rates announcement. Whether or not it sticks is anybody's guess. But one name in the financials space has stood out for its relative lack of participation in the recent rally off the bear market lows.

Stocks like these are the ones we want to leverage into bearish portfolio hedges. So let's get right to it.

Insiders Are Buying Regional Banks

July 29, 2022

Insiders are buying up regional banks this week.

Independent Director Robert Stallings reported an additional  purchase of $1.2 million in Texas Capital Bancshares $TCB, as he continues to build his position.

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A Classic Intermarket Relationship

July 28, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.    

Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.

I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.

And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.

Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:

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Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Overlooked Cucumbers & Missed Opportunities

July 28, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It's not the first thing I do in the morning (a cup of coffee and some devotional time take precedence) but early each day, I am out in the garden. Hose in hand, I water what needs to be watered. I'm also observing – noticing weeds, identifying what needs to be propped up or redirected, and making a mental note of what is ripe and ready to be picked.

Right now, it's cucumbers – a lot of them. I'm giving them away as fast as I can. But I still had to pickle a bunch this past weekend (Capital Preservation in investing parlance). They are almost hydra-like this time of year. Eat one and there are three more ready to be picked.

What Bitcoin Needs To Thrive

July 28, 2022

Here's your chart of the day.

How can it not be?

It's the answer to the question: "What's it going to take for Bitcoin and Crypto to start doing well again?"

You see this inverse correlation?

Are We Entering Accumulation?

July 28, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

It's fair to say I used to be a huge nerd.

In high school, I wasn't into sports, drinking, or other normal teenage shenanigans.

As strange as it may seem, I was super passionate about technical analysis. I would use my English periods and lunch times learning fixated on what these charts meant, reading countless blogs, and spending hours learning what technical analysis was on Investopedia.

It's hilarious looking back on it now, but I vividly remember my 16th birthday. I convinced my Dad to buy me a flight to Auckland, so I could go to an investing seminar held by a well-known Kiwi entrepreneur, Jamie Beaton.

What teenager wants tickets for an investing seminar for their 16th birthday?

One story you'll hear often from technicians is that technical analysis opened up finance to them in an intuitive way. No longer were they basing their decisions on arbitrary discounted cash flow models or unreliable accounting figures.

Instead, they were following the only driver that moves markets -- money flow.

As I've grown over the years, I've come to a similar conclusion.