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[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

October 28, 2022

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

A Market of Stocks > A Stock Market

The Chart: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% on Wednesday, despite a majority of the stocks in the index advancing on the day. Thursday was similar, with the index falling 0.6% but again more stocks were up than down.

By The Numbers: Going back to 1998, there have been 276 single day instances of the index declining on days when more stocks were up than down. That is less than 5% of the time. We’ve seen it for two days in a row only 25 times. 2022 is the first year since 2017 that we have had two in a row more than once in a single year. We’ve only seen three for three (three consecutive index-level declines accompanied by more stocks rising than falling) three times since 1998, with the most recent coming more than twenty years ago.

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[Options Premium] What's Old is New Again

October 28, 2022

"Old Economy" stocks are drawing our attention again.

Our Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza says: "these old economy stocks are all beating earnings and taking leadership roles" and he cites companies like Caterpillar $CAT, Deere $DE, as well as energies, homebuilders, and transportation stocks.

Today's trade is an expression of the continuation of this theme, and our target stock is offering us a nice pullback to enter into.

 

Swing Trader Pro: Morning Briefing (10-28-2022)

October 28, 2022

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a big earnings night last night, with $AAPL up and $AMZN down.

Futures are negative this morning. I'd like to see the $SPX hold 3,772. To continue higher, we must stay above 3,800 for a potential move to 3,820.

When to Change Speeds

October 27, 2022

How great it is that we can change our minds and take decisive action immediately?

As traders in the financial markets, if our spidey senses detect that something is amiss or conditions have changed, we can often liquidate our positions and head safely into cash with just a few keystrokes on our computer. Depending on the size of our positions, we can be completely in cash within minutes, maybe even seconds!

You can’t do that with Real Estate.

You certainly can’t do that with Private Equity investments.

You definitely can’t do that with a small business.

All of those investments are fine for their own reasons. But they don’t offer us the opportunity to immediately exit if we change our minds.

Of course, just because we can change our minds on a dime doesn’t mean we always should. If we’re wishy-washy and trading without a plan, it becomes incredibly easy to overtrade and drive our commission bills and nerves through the roof. While this might make us popular at our broker’s office, our accountants will unlikely be pleased.

Bear Markets are a Choice

October 27, 2022

There are stocks going up and there are stocks going down.

I'm old enough to remember when we would all call that normal.

The going up category just got longer recently. Remember Energy had been the only Sector Index above its 200 day moving average.

Healthcare is now also on that list.

Industrials and Consumer Staples are the next closest ones.

This morning we talked about how poorly the Tech heavy Emerging Markets were doing vs those like Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, that have a much different composition.

The difference in performance is off the charts.

There are big winners and big losers.

Another big loser driving headlines is in Large-cap Growth. Stocks like Google and Facebook got crushed after earnings. And now Amazon is joining that list after the bell Thursday.

But that's specifically Large-cap Growth.

Small-cap Growth, on the other hand, is holding up way better.

You can see here how Small-cap Growth is hitting the highest levels of the year relative to Large-cap Growth:

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The Riskiest Bonds Look Best

October 27, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have stopped falling across the board!

That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind this week’s near-term strength. 

Right now, we’re looking at just a few days of bullish price action. And where do we define our risk?

We have to know where we’re right and where we're wrong before we get involved in any investment. 

Thankfully, high-yield bonds answer this all-important question.

Check out the daily chart of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG:

Unlike most bonds, HYG has formed a small reversal formation.

Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (10-27-2022)

October 27, 2022

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market took a healthy pause today, and the $SPX held onto 3,800 support. The next level of support is 3,772.

So far this week, the market has shrugged off bad tech earnings. Let's see what $AAPL and $AMZN bring us tonight.

We'll also see if the $SPY holds onto 380 and then 378. If not we have room down to 376.55.