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February is Like A Bad Hangover

February 6, 2023

Stock market bulls have been rewarded over the past 3 months.

And remember, historically these are the best 3 months of the year - November through January.

And then comes the hangover.

Think about those last three months.

Did you see people having a good time?

Were some having a little too much fun?

Would you agree there was some disorderly conduct?

Were participants behaving as if they were under the influence?

You bet.

And this sort of behavior is normal for this time of the year, and the entire 4-year cycle for that matter.

But then comes February - one of the worst months of the year.

The U.S. Is The Worst

February 5, 2023

"I only trade U.S. Stocks, JC"

"If you can't find a stock in America to buy you're not looking hard enough, JC"

"I live in America, JC"

"I don't know anything about those stocks in other countries, JC"

Trust me, I hear all these things.

Not so much from you guys, as it is my friends and colleagues in the business.

I feel like readers of Allstarcharts know better, and also we have a very global audience.

So the recency bias that oozes out of most American investors, who have gotten accustomed to the U.S. being the best place to be, forgot what it's like when that's not the case.

You're talking about a decade of outperformance, and depending on how you measure it, you can even argue that's it's been a decade and half of U.S. dominance.

But believe it or not, stocks traded before 2011.

The U.S. wasn't always the global leader in equities.

The Median Stock Breaks Out

February 5, 2023

The Value Line Geometric is one of the more underappreciated indexes that we have at our disposal.

The Dow is the OG, the S&P500 is the benchmark and the Nasdaq gets all the girls.

But you know, it's the Value Line Geometric Index that might actually give us the best information.

Most new 52-wk highs in over a year

February 4, 2023

I remember last year getting yelled at and trolled online because I was talking about breadth improvement.

Just because their stupid computers weren't telling them that it was time to buy didn't stop me and my team from simply counting how many stocks were going up vs how many were going down.

Boy did that serve us well as stocks have absolutely ripped higher over the past couple quarters.

We've been in a raging bull market while most investors keep asking me when stocks are going to bottom.

That's how far removed most people are from reality.

In fact, market breadth has improved so much that we're now seeing more stocks making new 52-week highs than we saw at the peak in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq back in late 2021.

Yes, more stocks are making new highs today than there were at the "market's highs":

All Star Charts Premium

International Hall of Famers (02-03-2023)

February 3, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

All Star Charts Premium

Cotton Prepares to Cut and Run

February 3, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Forget about what Powell said or whatever you heard on the street. 

We’re still looking for risk assets to buy.

That includes stocks and commodities. Despite the dollar applying downside pressure to risk assets this morning, I want to share one commodity that looks ready to rip…

Check out the weekly chart of Cotton futures:

Cotton experienced a sharp decline last year following an impressive run-up off the 2020 lows. Fast forward to today, and it’s challenging a critical retracement level from below at approximately 89.

The bulls have hammered this level since October of last year. And the way I learned it… 

The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Hoisting the China Flag

February 3, 2023

I'm an amateur chartist, at best. If you want charting experts, I'll refer you to my team here at All Star Charts.

That said, I've got my eye on what appears to be a bullish flag forming in a hot Chinese stock and it looks ready for liftoff. Coupled with cheap options pricing, we can neatly define our risks and position ourselves for a big win.

 

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend: Rally Gets a 5-Star Review

February 3, 2023

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

After Tuesday’s 9-to-1 upside volume day, our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist is now five out of five.

Why It Matters: The conditions for a new bull market have been met. It’s hard to argue otherwise from a market perspective. Large-cap and mid-cap value indexes reached new all-time highs this week, and small-cap value is not too far behind. The trend for the market for the market is higher, even if not all the indexes (including the popular benchmarks) are trending higher. But when the trend is higher, leadership is evidence of opportunity.