This is the big question for me right now. Do we get rotation into the sectors that led this market off the lows last June?
We'll be discussing it on our NEW Morning Show today. Make sure to catch us LIVE from 830AM - 10AM ET using this link.
First, here's what I mean.
Check out these 3 Index Funds that have been underperforming this year. Financials and Small-caps flirting with last summers lows, and I threw Industrials in there too as a representation of the more Value areas of the market:
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended May 26, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or...
It's not going to be finished in my lifetime or in yours or my kids' or grandkids'. That's not the point. The point is to get it started.
~ Korczak Ziolkowski
Last weekend, I took a little six-hour road trip to South Dakota to spend a full day hiking in Badlands National Park. It was amazing. The landscape is stunning and challenging to describe. It’s not quite desert. It’s not quite grassland. It’s not quite mountainous. It’s remote. Some have likened it to a moonscape. But even that doesn’t quite capture it.
You just have to go and experience it for yourself. Trust me – it’s worth it.
I also took advantage of my proximity to Mt. Rushmore to arrive at 7 a.m. the next day. I was one of the only people in the park and was lucky to have Mt. Rushmore to myself for the better part of an hour....
Simple and straightforward. That was our roadmap back in early March.
Now, almost three months later, the dollar is putting that strategy to the test as it approaches 105 from below.
That multi-month consolidation with “continuation pattern” written all over it never continued lower.
Instead, the dollar index has chopped sideways within a tight range for almost six months. And the evidence is beginning to support a possible upside resolution…
The lack of broad US dollar weakness caught my attention back in April.
Our G-10 currency index and US dollar advance-decline line were printing potential higher lows, while DXY was on the verge of undercutting pivot lows from earlier in the year. The divergence suggested burgeoning USD strength.
Interestingly, DXY has gained roughly 3.5% since.
The G-10 index is now posting a series of higher...
But not all is lost. In fact, I still see constructive consolidations on longer time frames.
It’s messy. But I’m impressed with gold’s and silver’s resilience as they twist and bend beneath supply.
But how low can they go before they break…
For gold, I’m focusing on the prior commodity supercycle peak at roughly 1,924.
If it loses those former highs, the key retracement level at approximately 1,825 highlights the next potential support area:
I like this level for two reasons.
It marks a former polarity zone, coinciding with last summer’s pivot highs and the March pivot lows earlier this year. And it gives gold room to dance.
Gold futures are simply shimmying within a multi-year range as long as they hold above the March lows.
I imagine the gold bugs find the sideways action frustrating. Regardless, the bull case remains intact from an intermediate-term perspective.
On the other hand, the bullish argument becomes increasingly thin on a break below 1,825 as the lower bounds of the...