From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's Fed Day, and we know the drill...

Up, down, and all around.

[10/19/23 Update: moved stop to 125]

If stock markets are about to recover and start another leg higher back towards all-time highs, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Google (Alphabet) $GOOG doesn't at least retake last summer's highs north of $123 per share.

Call me crazy, but that's where my head's at.

Take a look at the coil that $GOOGL is working through right now:

The $GOOGL and $GOOG charts look the same. It's confusing and annoying that they have two shares classes (the "L" shares come with voting rights, the others do not).

The GOOG options have more open interest and volume, so that's where we will put on our trade.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

These tiny banks have been in trouble for quite some time.

That we know.

The question has been more about whether or not the selling spills into other parts of the market.

So far it has not.

The spikes in volatility in the bond market, for example, have only resulted in volatility in these little banks.

We have not seen it spill into other asset classes, and certainly not in the majority of stocks.

Remember, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just closed the month of April at the highest levels in a year.

Where's the volatility?

The VIX just closed at new 52-week lows last week.

So here's the deal.

This is what Regional Banks and Community Banks look like right now: Major tops, completing and collapsing.

These are classic bullish to bearish reversal patterns:

The big story on today's list is that executives from some of the most severely damaged banks are still filing Form 4s.

Here's yesterday's list:

• Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI
• Zions Bancorporation, National Association $ZION
• Simmons First National Corporation $SFNC
• Ameris Bancorp $ABCB
• Prosperity Bancshares $PB
• FB Financial Corporation $FBK
• Bank of Hawaii Corporation $BOH
• Farmers National Banc Corp $FMNB
• Old National Bancorp $ONB
• First Financial Bankshares $FFIN

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This is a big day, with the FOMC set to announce an interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET.

We had a late-day bounce yesterday -- typical, as this market loves to levitate.

I imagine it’s not uncommon for people to realize sooner or later that the person they thought they were is not at all who they really are. Perhaps not even close.

Are you being yourself?

Think hard about this. And be careful. Because your conclusion might have important ramifications beyond your day-to-day daydreaming through life. It will also likely have significant impacts on who you are as a trader and how you approach your relationship with risk – even your courtship of success (or lack thereof).

Everyone’s path to personal discovery will have its own speed limit, hills and valleys, and complements of sharp turns and extreme weather conditions.

The visibility isn’t always clear. For me, the wiper-fluid that cleaned my windows and sharpened my vision was my elimination of alcohol from my routine.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market took a decent dive early today, but after lunch time we saw a decent bounce. Perhaps it was short covering.

We don't know which way the market will go tomorrow after the Fed's interest rate announcement.

Time will tell.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"The bigger the base, the higher in space."

That’s how I learned it from JC.

But he wasn’t the technician who coined the adage. It was actually handed down from Lousie Yamada, who studied under the legendary Alan Shaw.

It was amazing to connect with technicians from around the world last week at the 50th Annual CMTA Symposium.

I have a great deal of gratitude for all those who made last week possible and to the founding members who paved the way for technical analysis. 

The experience was humbling, as it exposed my roots and reminded me where I come from.

It's just like the Swiss franc reminds us that observations from more than a hundred years ago continue to play out across today’s markets…

Check out the monster base in Swiss franc futures:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Impinj, Inc. $PI director Steve Sanghi.

Sanghi reported a purchase of PI shares worth $1,997,500.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$SPY bumped right against its Bollinger band yesterday and dropped.

We had a pretty decent-sized move last week, and I think the indices will wait till tomorrow to get going again.