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The Short Report (05-03-2023)

May 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

[Options] Positioning for $GOOG to Play Catchup

May 3, 2023

[10/19/23 Update: moved stop to 125]

If stock markets are about to recover and start another leg higher back towards all-time highs, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Google (Alphabet) $GOOG doesn't at least retake last summer's highs north of $123 per share.

Call me crazy, but that's where my head's at.

Take a look at the coil that $GOOGL is working through right now:

The $GOOGL and $GOOG charts look the same. It's confusing and annoying that they have two shares classes (the "L" shares come with voting rights, the others do not).

The GOOG options have more open interest and volume, so that's where we will put on our trade.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

May 3, 2023

These tiny banks have been in trouble for quite some time.

That we know.

The question has been more about whether or not the selling spills into other parts of the market.

So far it has not.

The spikes in volatility in the bond market, for example, have only resulted in volatility in these little banks.

We have not seen it spill into other asset classes, and certainly not in the majority of stocks.

Remember, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just closed the month of April at the highest levels in a year.

Where's the volatility?

The VIX just closed at new 52-week lows last week.

So here's the deal.

This is what Regional Banks and Community Banks look like right now: Major tops, completing and collapsing.

These are classic bullish to bearish reversal patterns:

Bank Execs Back Up the Trucks

May 3, 2023

The big story on today's list is that executives from some of the most severely damaged banks are still filing Form 4s.

Here's yesterday's list:

  • Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI
  • Zions Bancorporation, National Association $ZION
  • Simmons First National Corporation $SFNC
  • Ameris Bancorp $ABCB
  • Prosperity Bancshares $PB
  • FB Financial Corporation $FBK
  • Bank of Hawaii Corporation $BOH
  • Farmers National Banc Corp $FMNB
  • Old National Bancorp $ONB
  • First Financial Bankshares $FFIN

I Wish I Could Have Been Me Sooner

May 2, 2023

I imagine it’s not uncommon for people to realize sooner or later that the person they thought they were is not at all who they really are. Perhaps not even close.

Are you being yourself?

Think hard about this. And be careful. Because your conclusion might have important ramifications beyond your day-to-day daydreaming through life. It will also likely have significant impacts on who you are as a trader and how you approach your relationship with risk – even your courtship of success (or lack thereof).

Everyone’s path to personal discovery will have its own speed limit, hills and valleys, and complements of sharp turns and extreme weather conditions.

The visibility isn’t always clear. For me, the wiper-fluid that cleaned my windows and sharpened my vision was my elimination of alcohol from my routine.

Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (05-02-2023)

May 2, 2023

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market took a decent dive early today, but after lunch time we saw a decent bounce. Perhaps it was short covering.

We don't know which way the market will go tomorrow after the Fed's interest rate announcement.

Time will tell.

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The Swiss Franc Carves a Generational Base

May 2, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"The bigger the base, the higher in space."

That’s how I learned it from JC.

But he wasn’t the technician who coined the adage. It was actually handed down from Lousie Yamada, who studied under the legendary Alan Shaw.

It was amazing to connect with technicians from around the world last week at the 50th Annual CMTA Symposium.

I have a great deal of gratitude for all those who made last week possible and to the founding members who paved the way for technical analysis. 

The experience was humbling, as it exposed my roots and reminded me where I come from.

It's just like the Swiss franc reminds us that observations from more than a hundred years ago continue to play out across today’s markets…

Check out the monster base in Swiss franc futures: