From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s commodities over bonds.

In fact, we’re now in an everything-over-bonds environment as rates continue to rise. 

Looking for an uptrend?

Just place US Treasury bonds or the Japanese yen in the denominator, and voila!  

I consider the commodity-versus-bonds ratio one of if not the most important high-level intermarket ratio in our deck.

Why? Because it reveals the inflationary backdrop that colors the entire market,  determining secular leadership between asset classes and US stocks. 

And it’s hinting at the next trend in relative strength…

Check out the commodity-versus-bond ratio, as measured by the relationship between the CRB Index and 30-year Treasury bond futures:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We got a little reprieve from the selling today.

We'll see how the indices handle their respective resistance levels.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Jeffrey W. Ubben, the co-founder and chairman of ValueAct Capital.

Ubben revealed a purchase of $20 million worth of Exxon Mobil Corporation $XOM stock.

Boeing is on the runway and has been cleared for takeoff.

So we're going to put on a trade that will hopefully mimic a successful climb to cruising altitude.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$AMZN had good earnings, $AAPL not so much.

Futures are up some, but it's been a bumpy week.

This is just a friendly reminder that the most bullish period of the entire 4-year cycle has just come to an end.

How'd you do?

Stocks broke records in terms of performance and have been in the midst of a raging bull market, driven by sector rotation and breadth expansion.

All of this is perfectly normal.

Stocks did very well at exactly the time that they were supposed to.

Not sure why so many are surprised by it.

Now that even the biggest permabears threw in the towel and started turning more optimistic, we are now entering the most bearish time for stocks:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have $AMZN and $AAPL earnings after the close.

It was a real tug of war for the indices today. Nearing the close, they were selling off the market.

Maybe a prelude to what's about to come...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Rates are on the move again.

The US 30-year Treasury yield $TYX cleared numerous hurdles this week. 

It broke above a shelf of former highs, climbing to its highest level year-to-date. And, perhaps more importantly, it reclaimed its former 2014 high.

Add a potential failed breakdown in the US dollar index $DXY, and it’s starting to feel a lot like 2022.

But should we expect another bloodbath?

…Not necessarily.

Here’s a quick look at the US 30-year yield resolving higher from an 8-month consolidation:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Loews Corporation.

The American conglomerate reported a purchase of $175 million worth of shares in CNA Financial Corporation $CNA.