From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley 

We like buying energy.

Who doesn’t? 

Energy stocks are resolving higher and holding their breakouts, something few market areas can claim this quarter.

It makes sense.

Interest rates are rising across the curve as the US 10- and 30-year yields eclipse last year’s high.

Procyclical commodities and value-oriented stocks are responding as they tend to benefit the most as yields climb.

And when we add a dash of stock market rotation – bam! 

Energy-related assets are making contact!

But while rates continue to rise and energy names are ripping, crude oil has not been able to break out…

Check out the daily chart of crude oil futures sliding back within its prior range:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

After a volatile week finally Friday is here.

We had a few good trades to end the week.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

As I and the team have discussed on The Morning Show and this week's Options Jam Session, I'm on the hunt for opportunities to sell delta-neutral option premium with $VIX exploring higher levels than we've seen in recent months.

Today's trade is in a sector ETF exhibiting elevated options premiums and signs for extended rangebound action.

And October options are offering us enough premiums to trade strikes sufficiently far away from current action, beyond significant support and resistance levels.

As far as setups for delta-neutral premium collection go, this one checks all the boxes.

Here's the Play:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Inflation worries, higher yields, and the dollar rising typically spells trouble for equities.

I mentioned in the Live Trading Room yesterday that if the S&P 500  breaks 4,400 we can see 4,370. An overbought market can stay overbought, and an oversold market can stay oversold.

This has been a slow bleed lower. It's not an easy market to trade, so I tell people to back away or trade very small.

Everyone's a hero when the market goes up!

They're starting to hit a lot of names.

The Regime change in the market is real.

It's much different today than it was in the first half of the year.

And that's perfectly normal. Anything else would actually be very unusual.

The strategies that worked in the first 6 months are not working well in this environment. But the strategies that did NOT work in the first half of the year are much better in the current market.

See: Regime Change

For example, high volatility strategies were mostly terrible in the first half of the year. That's because we were in a low volatility environment. It was our low vol strategies that worked great for us.

So since the market is behaving differently now, then so are we.

Volatility is a little more elevated, so that means we're getting paid to play. That wasn't the case earlier this year.

Freeport McMoRan, for example, has some juicy premiums and is trading in a massive range.

Perfect:

These are the registration details for our LIVE Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our Live Call will be held on Wednesday August 23rd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Wednesday night:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Credit spreads are the canaries in the financial market coal mine.

They’ll peep at the first sign markets face serious risks.

With stocks entering a corrective phase, it makes sense to seek information from the biggest exchange in the world.

The bond market.

Credit spreads remain tight despite increased selling across US equities.

That’s the opposite of what I’d expect during a severe selloff.

What does that tell us?

Check out the overlay chart of the Russell 2000 ETF $IWM with the high-yield credit spread ratio, $HYG/$IEI:

A reader recently reached out to me, asking about a trade I put on.

I’m paraphrasing, but the conversation went something like this:

Reader: “The implied volatility of the MSTR June 450 calls is 64.7%. That is far from cheap, no?”

Me: “The absolute number of implied volatility is meaningless to me. I’m paying attention to its relative value. I want to know where IV is now compared to where it’s been.”

Reader: “Wow. That amazes me. I always thought the implied volatility was an indication of how expensive an option was. Could you write an educational piece on this sometime please?”

Dear reader, your wish is my command.

Here’s the thing about options premiums (and implied volatility, or “IV,” which measures premiums) – they mean revert.

When IV spikes, it’s only a matter of time before it comes back down. And when IV is low, it’s likely that any sudden premium moves will be to the upside, not the downside.

Why is this true?

We’re having loads of fun with What the FICC?

Spencer and I talk about high-level intermarket trends, whatever markets catch our attention, and things that fly under the average investor’s radar.

Bill Baruch, the founder and president of Blue Line Futures, will join us tomorrow to share his insights on trends and markets.

I’m a big fan of Bill’s and the entire team at Blue Line – a consistent source of clarity. And I know Spencer’s dying to discuss yields…

It’s going to be a good one! Be sure to tune in tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. ET.

If you missed yesterday’s show, here’s a quick recap…

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This is a tough market.

We'll see if they hold 439 on $SPY.