From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures are giddy this morning.

Let's see how $SPY holds on to the 425.50 area.

One of the better indicators of a healthy bull market is when you see Consumer Discretionary stocks (the things we want) outperforming Consumer Staples stocks (the things we need).

The ratio between Discretionary and Staples is one we look at during bull markets, to confirm what the indexes are doing, as well as in bear markets to find divergences that may turn before the indexes themselves (see '08-'09).

This really has been one of the more reliable indicators for many years.

And wouldn't you know it, as pessimism spikes, volatility pops, and the permabears begin to pound their chest again, Discretionaries are putting in higher lows relative to Staples.

This is classic sector rotation we see during healthy market environments:

There are no free lunches on Wall Street and certainly not in options trading. 

It might be sexy to tell people that we’re “options premium sellers” and suggest that all we do is sell naked options that expire worthless – while keeping all the premiums for ourselves. Easy peasy.

But we know that’s not really how it works.

There’s a risk in holding naked short options. Our brokerage houses are keenly aware of these risks – and that’s why they require us to post margin in order to hold these positions. The margin protects the house. Mostly their house, but our houses too.

When a short options position goes against us, our brokerages need to ensure we have adequate buying power in our accounts to close the position and prevent further losses.

But just because we need to post a certain amount of dollars to hold a position doesn’t mean we should calculate our returns off of that number. That number doesn’t mean anything other than the fact that it’s the amount the house needs in order to be comfortable with us being naked short.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Borrowing costs are increasing, and US Treasuries are tanking – again. 

Everyone knows it. Even my therapist commented on interest rates and the “terrible” economy.

The 30-year T-bond has hit our initial target. And the 10-year is within striking distance. 

So much for limited downside risk for the bond market. Perhaps the call for a 5.25 print on the 10-year yield by Christmas wasn’t aggressive at all.

But elevated yields aren’t the problem…

And I don’t care about the economy when it comes to market speculation.

Remember, we don’t trade the economy. We trade the markets or – more precisely – price.

Interest rates hung around decade highs earlier this year while the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed its best first half since its inception.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market started the day trending higher.

Then all the indices completely reversed.

Then they went back up.

It was tough trading.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Magnolia Capital Fund.

The investment firm revealed the acquisition of 215,565 shares of RE/MAX Holdings $RMAX, equivalent to $2.6 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$QQQ pushed past its eight-day moving average.

Now we need to see if the indices have continuation today.

This has to be one of the world's most important trends right now. How could it not be?

You hear all this nonsense about the S&P493 and how it's only 7 stocks going up.

But those are just lies. That's not how the market works, and that is certainly not what's been happening this year.

The real trend here is in the outperformance of the largest companies, particularly mega-cap growth, relative to other indexes with more diversified sector exposure and market-caps.

This is the Nasdaq100 making new all-time highs relative to the much broader Russell3000 Index:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The most important chart in the world is back in action!

A rising US dollar is generating increased selling pressure for risk assets and global currencies.

US Treasury bonds, stock indexes, and even commodities are catching lower.

Yet it’s nothing new for the top components of the US Dollar Index $DXY (the euro leads at 57.6%, followed by the yen at 13.6% and the pound at 11.9%).

New lows and broken support have become standard for these currencies. 

But King Dollar’s command is spreading to the more resilient pockets of the forex market, as fresh breakouts mount.

Here’s the US dollar-Canadian dollar pair breaking above a key retracement level to six-month highs following a litany of missed attempts:

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Rising rates have been a worldwide phenomenon for the last two and a half years as yields have climbed non-stop.

Not only are we seeing the curve in the US reach decade-long highs, but the benchmark yields in Germany, France, Spain, and even Japan are also trading at multi-year highs.

Below is the US 10-year Yield reaching its highest level since 2007 after breaking out of a multi-month base three weeks ago.