In a recent blog post, All Star Charts highlighted a stock retesting a breakout from a very large base. This was the money quote:
First off, big bases take time to form because they are caused by steady institutional accumulation. Mom and pop investors aren’t the ones creating this trend, so I know that there’s underlying demand that will support prices if they do move lower.
Because prices have memory and the base has taken a significant period of time to build, there’s likely been more trading at each price level along the way. As a result of this institutional support, the rate of change to the downside is likely to be less severe versus a name that’s advanced quickly to the upside with less trading activity at each level, and thus less memory among market participants to defend these levels on the way down.
Secondly, our risk is extremely well-defined when trading these patterns. In the event that we are buying a base breakout (or pullback), we know exactly where we are wrong and can generally minimize our risk relative to potential reward.
Stocks have lost firm footing in recent weeks. And while things may look a little sloppy out there in some corners, it is a constructive exercise to focus our attention on the sectors and stocks that are holding up well in this tape.
An iconic American credit card company is exhibiting a take charge attitude that has me interested in running up my balance.
As US stocks rallied for most of this year, many stocks in the Metals, Mining, Coal, and Steel sectors could not get out of their own way and refused to participate in the broad rally. Back in March, All Star Charts published a report highlighting this. So naturally, as stocks begin to soften across the board, it's time to lean into these bad boys and push them off a cliff.
Markets are getting a little shaky. No real surprise. We've had a huge run to start the year and it's only natural for there to be givebacks along the way. Markets don't go straight up forever. That's not how this works.
That said, there are some sectors and stocks that are still holding up relatively well that require our attention. If this turns out to be another garden variety correction then we're going to want to be long names that are standing strong now -- these are likely to be the next leaders. The All Star Charts team published a bullish piece on the Energy sector a couple weeks ago, and not much has changed since. The sector and its stocks have pretty much gone sideways. One stock that has my attention now is:
If you've read headlines or watched Shout! TV over the past 36 hours, you've likely been tempted to make some bad decisions with your portfolio. Panic is like sex to the financial media -- panic sells. Panic attracts eyeballs, gets you glued in, which translates to advertiser dollars. That's all financial media cares about. Not you, and certainly not your portfolio.
Our choice as market speculators is to either succumb to the artificial stress placed upon markets to make decisions not in our best long-term interest, or to take the other side of the nonsense, trusting in cooler heads and price action to lead the way. You know which path we take here...
It's one thing to find a great opportunity to make a directional bet. But sometimes it can be be quite a challenge to express that trade with options due to a thin market of options for that stock. This would make a multi-legged options spread especially hard to pull off. In situations like these, I like to leverage the simplicity of naked options.
In our most recent All Star Options monthly conference call, JC highlighted why he felt metals might be a good buy here. Inspired by his enthusiasm, we discussed a play in gold that could play nicely in the scenario he laid out.
With U.S. Markets back at All Time Highs, it would be irresponsible to be doing anything other than keeping close tabs on the price action leaders. And many of these leading stocks will currently be found in the Software sector.
Shocking as it may seem, not all stocks and sectors are knocking on the door of new all-time highs. The clean energy sector is one of those neighborhoods. But that hasn't stopped us from digging in to find an opportunistic trade.
Recent price action in a tech name has us opportunistically wading in to catch a possible earnings driven bounce. We don't often put trades on in anticipation of a reversal of price action (we tend to be drawn to trends), but in this case we have a stock that has pulled back in recent days to a major past breakout area and we've got an earnings event coming up that just may be the grease which gets the wheels turning back in the direction of the broader trend.
Sometimes, stocks you want to own give you no chance to get in comfortably. They just start running and offer you no pullbacks to buy into. In hindsight, these are always the ones we wished we woulda just closed our eyes and hit market buy on. Of course, in real life and in real time, it's impossible to know when you're looking at a stock that is going to run straight up. One such stock that has given me a little of this FOMO (fear of missing out) has recently offered us a slight window to buy into. And at the time of this writing (Monday morning, April 22), S&P Futures are indicating a gap down opening for the broader market, perhaps adding to our chances of getting in at a better price.