Silver futures slide to multi-month lows, undercutting a critical shelf of former support.

Regardless, we believe precious metals and their related stocks ultimately resolve higher, printing fresh all-time highs.

But before we can put money behind this bullish thesis, interest rates and the US dollar need to stop rising.

Check it out:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures have undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

I find it difficult to hold a bullish bias for precious metals and mining stocks, at least from a tactical perspective.

And when I zoom out to longer time frames, overhead supply looms large across the entire space.

Understand, I believe precious metals and their related stocks ultimately resolve higher, printing fresh all-time highs. 

But before we can put money behind this bullish thesis, these next three charts need to throw it in reverse…

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I can’t stop talking about the softs trading on the NYMEX.

Coffee, cocoa, and OJ are all ripping higher. It seems only a matter of time before sugar and cotton join the fun.  

So can we extend an underlying bullish thesis for ag commodities to the grain contracts traded on the CBOT?

I don’t think it’s that simple. Regardless, I want to be prepared if and when the Chicago grain markets break out…

Let’s review the most actively traded contracts for corn and the soybean complex. First up…

Corn

Here’s the May corn futures contract:

There are two ways to play it.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

Rates continue to rise along with concerns of an impending recession.

The narrative is quickly shifting back to tighter monetary policy following last week’s higher-than-anticipated CPI and strong economic data. I don’t pay too much attention to this gossip. But I do keep a pulse on the latest discourse surrounding markets.

With these newfound recessionary fears circulating, I want to share a chart I like to avoid… The 2s10s treasury spread.

I can’t remember the last time I wrote about the yield curve. It’s been so inverted (deepest inversion since the early 80s) for so long that I honestly don’t know what to think.

Nevertheless, the overlay chart of the Staples sector $XLP relative to the S&P 500 $SPY with the 2s10s spread conveys an important piece of information:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Challenging conditions prevail across currency markets. 

It’s victory at sea! 

But that’s not stopping the dollar from cutting through the chop.

Does that mean it’ll go on a run, applying downside pressure on risk assets?

It’s tough to say.

Nevertheless, I have one chart for you that provides clarity as the dollar begins to make its move.

Check out the triple-pane chart of the US Dollar Index $DXY, our G-10 currency index, and our US dollar advance-decline line:

At the top, we have six pairs dominated by the euro. I’ve been vocal about the significance of the euro trading below 1.08. It’s basic math.

This is the video recording of the February 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

The stage is set for an epic rally. The catalysts are in place.

Yet messy conditions persist as we await ignition and blast off.

Regardless, we can use the current environment to find the most buoyant and promising names.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

With the dollar beginning to rise, gold and silver are coming under some selling pressure.

Nevertheless, these shiny rocks and their related mining stocks are hanging tough.

Instead of getting bent out of shape, I plan on using the recent bout of selling as an opportunity.

When markets come under pressure, it’s time to identify the most resilient names. 

Why? 

The strongest stocks will likely lead the next leg higher.

Some call it the “beachball” effect. These names tend to rip higher after sellers fail to submerge these stocks.

And I have a potential beachball of a gold mining stock I want to share with you today…

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.