From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Yields are rising worldwide. 

US treasuries continue to fall after a brief pullback in price. 

Now, Chinese government bonds are pressing toward fresh lows.

Sovereign debt epitomizes downside risk. And Chinese bonds are on the cusp of a significant breakdown – a breakdown that spells more trouble for global bond investors.

Check out the VanEck China Bond ETF $CBON:

CBON aims to track the ChinaBond China High Quality Index (debt mainly issued by the People’s Bank of China). And like US treasuries, Chinese government bonds are flirting with fresh multi-year lows.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

This is the video recording of our September 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It was do or die for the yellow metal a couple of weeks ago.

Gold chose “do.”

Buyers sprang into action, defending a critical former support level while driving prices higher. 

That valiant effort may have only prolonged the inevitable: a period of sustained weakness.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not playing the role of a Debbie Downer this week.

I still believe gold is in the early innings of a new secular bull run.

Why?

It’s pretty simple. All we have to do is switch the denominator to any other global currency.

Gold has already broken out versus every currency in the world – except the US dollar. 

And that, folks, is the crux of the problem.

The US dollar!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

“Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” blared the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek less than a week after the US Dollar Index $DXY peaked last September.

Unbelievable timing.

We can’t make this stuff up!

While the DXY has undergone a significant correction since, the message is just as appropriate today as it was then.

The dollar can’t stop.

It’s ripping higher this morning, breaking to fresh six-month highs as it nears a key area of former resistance.

Those mounting breakouts and breakdowns favoring the USD from mid-August are sticking their moves. 

Have no fear, or "FOMO," if you missed any of those trades.

These next two dollar pairs offer well-defined entries using one of my favorite short-duration chart patterns…

The flag.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended August 31, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Seasonality is not the most heavily-weighted data point in my analysis.

It doesn’t even make the top three: price, price, and price.

Nevertheless, tracking seasonal patterns has proven quite valuable in past experiences, especially regarding commodities. (We discussed it today on What the FICC, outlining three strong seasonal tailwinds heading into the fall. Check it out below.)

Raw materials are clearly affected by the earth’s rotation around the sun. 

And while these trends fail to produce explicit entry or exit signals, they do provide insight into potential market conditions (not unlike sentiment or COT positioning). 

I use seasonality to help guide my focus to those areas of the market that deserve additional attention. Areas such as…

Sugar!

I’ve been watching sugar futures since the beginning of the year, waiting for a breakout. 

And boy, did it deliver!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries have stopped falling – for the moment.

But it’s a mixed bag.

Short setups for long-duration bonds remain in play despite pullbacks underway, while the shorter end of the curve never managed to break down.

It’s messy.

So, let’s run through the US Treasury futures for an updated read on the bond market.

First up is the 30-year T-bond:

The 30-year has broken below a shelf of former lows at approximately 123. It’s a short as long as it’s below that level with a measured target of 113’15.

But the 30-year is finding support at last year’s lows, bouncing higher toward our line in the sand.

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Tuesday September 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday evening:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.