Over the weekend I was running our "Weekend Momentum Report" for Institutional Clients and the message was very similar to last week, so I thought it was worth sharing.
Tuesday's Mystery Chart had a lot of people talking and guessing (incorrectly, as usual), so thank you all for your feedback and participation.
Overall the feedback was the chart was a longer-term buy, but people had concerns about how far it's run in the near-term.
With that as our backdrop, let's get into it.
Here's the US Healthcare Providers (IHF) which is emerging from a consolidation via a sharp rally as momentum gets overbought.
Overall this looks like the start of the subsector's next major move to the upside, but we'll get more information about its sustainability from seeing how prices digest their more than 20% gains since early October. Bulls want to see that correction occur through time, rather than price, with IHF preferably staying above its July highs near 180.
Marijuana stocks have been an absolute disaster for longs in 2019, but one chart suggests that after a nearly 60% decline, the Horizons Medical Marijuana ETF and its components are set up for a counter-trend rally.
Here's the daily chart we've been using to guide us since the Horizons Medical Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ) came public in April 2017. Following a quick double, prices settled into a 21-month range between 15 and 26 that was broken to the downside in late September after a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence were left unconfirmed.
After falling 35% from that failure and 60% from its 2019 high, the ETF is now showing signs of waning downside momentum as prices quickly recover from new marginal lows. It's also curious to note that this development is occurring at its IPO price around 10.
Stabilization in European Financials has been a big part of our bull case as they're one of the largest sectors of the Stoxx Europe 600, our broad measure of European stocks, and many individual European countries.
The other aspect of it is risk appetite. If the worst of the worst sectors is catching a bid, then market participants are not likely pricing in the end of the world.
With that in mind, let's take a look at what we're seeing in the space right now and what it means for risk appetite.
Here are European Financials (EUFN) on an absolute basis. After confirming a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence by closing back above their December lows, prices rallied nearly 20%, but are now experiencing waning upside momentum.
In today's Chart of The Week we look at the ratio of Chinese Internet stocks relative to US stocks and why it's potentially pointing to outperformance in the months and quarters ahead.
This premium post will outline the stocks we like to take advantage of that thesis. If you've not read that post, I'd recommend you do so you have the proper context around these ideas.
In late August we took a simplified look at the Bond market and discussed the potential for mean reversion lower (Rates higher), but that the market remained choppy and we should adhere to strict risk management to avoid getting run over on the short side.
Choppiness continued, but Bonds have sold off a bit.
So what now? Let's take a comprehensive look at Bonds and how we're approaching them into year-end.
Saturday I spoke at the Trade Ideas Summit in San Diego, outlining our bullish case for US Equities. It was a lot of fun and you can register here to receive the presentation replay when it becomes available.
In honor of the new all-time closing highs in the Russell 3000, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100, I want to outline several stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of our bullish Equities thesis.
For those who didn't check the market today, here's the Russell 3000 making a new all-time closing high, just shy of its former intra-day high of 178. New highs are not a characteristic of a downtrend, so as long as prices are pressing above 178 our upside target is 196 in the coming months.
These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts. In this call we will discuss the global market environment and how to profit from it. As always, this will include Stocks, Interest Rates, Commodities and Currencies. The video of the call will be archived in the members section to re-watch any time and the PDF of the charts will be made available as well.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday October 22th at 7PM ET. Here are the details for the call: