Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended June 10, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Don’t fight trends. It never ends well.
Learning to go with the flow often comes with age and experience. Lucky for us, we have plenty of both at All Star Charts as the current cycle isn’t our first rodeo.
We’ve been pounding the table on the energy trade, gracefully accepting all of this inflation and the outrageous prices at the pump.
What can we do about it?
We can own the strongest commodities that continue to benefit from this inflationary environment. It’s really that simple.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
The Japanese yen continues to be front and center, as the safe-haven currency can't seem to find its footing.
In a market where risk assets are struggling to catch any sort of sustained bid, finding investment opportunities in yen has been a great strategy. It continues to work.
Aside from providing a stellar trading opportunity, the current intermarket relationship between this forex cross and the bond market may reveal the near-term direction of the US 10-year yield.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s an overlay chart of the USD/JPY pair and the US 10-year yield with a 26-day correlation study in the lower pane:
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The Japanese yen continues to slide.
In early April, we highlighted the multi-year base in the USD/JPY cross. We were anticipating a significant breakout based on the broad weakness in the yen.
Even gold, one of the worst performing assets, looked strong denominated in yen.
Not long after the post, we got the breakout we expected. And, two months later, the USD/JPY is kicking off its next leg higher, printing fresh 20-year highs.
Let's take it a step further and outline some trade setups in other currencies denominated in yen.
Remember, everything and anything seems to work priced in yen these days.
First, a quick revisit of the USD/JPY chart we shared in April. Here’s the updated version:
We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Momentum thrusts abound.
The other day on Twitter Spaces, JC made the point that we hadn’t seen many bullish thrusts this year. He was right. There have been a handful of obscure ones, but nothing really stands out. Until now…
Last week, the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG registered its largest single-day rate of change since spring 2020.
Not bearish, right?
Then, yesterday, copper futures followed this up by rallying over 5% and booking their largest daily gain in almost a decade.
Also, not bearish.
These types of strong momentum thrusts tend to kick off new uptrends.
We just covered the action in HYG and highlighted the major bottoms that formed under similar momentum conditions.
Today, we’re going to review yesterday’s thrust in Dr. Copper and discuss what a sustained rally from here could mean for risk assets.
Let’s dive in!
Here’s a chart of copper futures with a one-day rate of change in the lower pane:
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.