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Currencies Tell the Story

July 19, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar and interest rates are still two of the most important charts out there. You’re probably tired of hearing it, but their future direction impacts the entire marketplace.

And, believe it or not, the currency market provides a great read on both.

Bullish data points continue to roll in left and right, supporting dollar strength. From the Korean won and Singaporean dollar to the euro and the pound, the dollar seems to break out against another currency every few days. 

No matter where we look, the US dollar is dominating

When we evaluate the trends in emerging market commodity currencies, it reveals insight into the recent rise in interest rates. Instead of showing strength, these currencies are catching lower -- which doesn’t jibe with a rising rate environment.

Let’s take a look.

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[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording July 2022

July 19, 2022

This is the video recording of the July 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

  • 34 Straight Weeks Of More New Lows Than New Highs
  • Strong Negative Correlation between Stocks & Dollars
  • DJIA & DJTA holding short-term support so far
  • S&P500 Remains Below overhead supply
  • Small-caps & Financials testing significant support levels
  • Europe's STOXX 600 back to 2000/2007 highs
  • Apple hits new All-time Relative Highs
  • US 10yr & 30yr Yields run into 2018 highs
  • Breakevens & EW Commodities peaked months ago before Yields
  • Still no expansion in the new 20 day highs or 63 highs lists
  • Commercial Hedgers remain historically long Crude Oil
  • Gold, Silver & Gold Miners break down to new 52-week lows
  • 10yr Minus 3-mo Yield Curve breaks down to follow 2s-10s
  • Bitcoin & Ethereum hold above former cycle peaks
  • New Trade Ideas: Both Long & Short

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Follow the Flow (07-18-2022)

July 18, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

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The Minor Leaguers (07-18-2022)

July 18, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

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Where Will Bears Strike Next?

July 15, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sellers are in the driver's seat when it comes to commodities these days.

Besides natural gas and livestock contracts, few commodities present buying opportunities that we like. In reality, most have either broken down or are on the verge of breaking down. 

As the latest bout of selling pressure shows little signs of easing, we’re likely to experience more damage in the coming days and weeks.

Copper, one of the most economically sensitive and widely followed commodities in the world, is a great example of recent weakness. It can’t stop falling.

Given the downside volatility raw materials have experienced since the start of the summer, many trends are stretched. We don’t want to be too bearish here. We want to let the dust settle.

With that said, it’s hard not to imagine where the bears will strike next.

And when we scroll through our charts, it looks like they have crude oil in their sights.

Let’s take a look.

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The Hall of Famers (07-15-2022)

July 15, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

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The Short Report (07-14-2022)

July 14, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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The Canadian Dollar Stands Strong

July 13, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s inescapable. If you haven’t read it in the news, seen it on Twitter, or heard it from a co-worker, here’s the scoop…

The euro has tumbled to parity with the dollar for the first time in almost 20 years!

That’s the big news in the currency markets these days. Sure, it’s a significant development.

But what currency isn’t falling against the US dollar right now?

It’s an interesting question. And it draws our attention to the Canadian dollar.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s a chart of the USD/CAD cross:

While the US dollar steamrolls everything in sight and prints fresh decade-highs against most major currencies, it’s still dealing with last year’s highs against the Canadian dollar.

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Under the Hood (07-11-2022)

July 11, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood report, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 8, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated our Minor Leaguers report.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

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Follow the Flow (07-11-2022)

July 11, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

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Young Aristocrats (July 2022)

July 11, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.”

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.