These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday August 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.
Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.
I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.
And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.
Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:
But before you step up to the line to place your bet, you must have a plan – a set of rules rooted in risk management to guide you through your trade.
There’s no way to enter and manage a trade if you don’t know where you’re right, where you’re wrong, and where you’re taking profits. Without a plan, your strategy and philosophical approach to the markets don’t matter.
That brings us to the British pound.
Here’s a chart of the GBP/USD cross:
A few weeks ago, we outlined a short setup in the GBP/USD pair. The pound was breaking down to levels associated with the Brexit sell-off, and we wanted to ride that trend lower.
Welcome to the latest edition of Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 22, 2022. We publish this report bi-weekly and rotate it with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
These ratios typically trend in the same direction as interest rates. But this hasn't been the case since last year.
And when we consider that yields are trapped below major resistance zones, we really like the counter-trend opportunity bonds are offering at these levels.
Let’s review a few setups from our Q3 Playbook we like for buying a bounce in bonds.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Investors have a lot of questions right now. With sentiment and at some of the most pessimistic levels in history, what will it take for some of these trends to change in the second half of the year? I believe some major trends are already changing.
The Playbook takes a step back and looks at things from a more Structural perspective. If you're specifically looking for more tactical opportunities, you can check out this week's Live Mid-Month Conference Call.
Here's what we'll be discussing in our Q3 Playbook: