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Saturday Morning Chartoons

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: What Are Rates Pointing To?

July 10, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

What are these falling rates suggesting for the rest of this summer?

I think this one tells an interesting story. I believe there are implications here for small-caps.

An upside resolution in $IWM likely means rates have found a floor:

But they still have some work to do. 

We discussed all of this and everything else on the latest Quarterly Playbook. You can download that here.

Also make sure to check out this week's Saturday Morning Chartoons. These are my favorite!

 

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Some Stocks Are Going Up. Most Are Not.

July 3, 2021

There are stocks going up and there are stocks that are not going up.

What you're not really seeing is many stocks going down.

That's probably the best way to describe this market.

We've outlined our long positions, particularly those that have been showing relative strength and positive momentum. Those areas are working.

But most stocks are not.

You can see the difference in the Value Line indexes, when we compare them to the S&P500. Think of these more of the "Median" stock:

You can see the same thing in other areas we look for confirmation of risk appetite. Both the Aussie/Yen and the High Beta / Low Volatility ratios are not confirming the new highs in S&Ps:

The Advance / Decline lines for both the NYSE (common stocks only) and the Nasdaq peaked a while ago.

They're all telling the same story.

Some...

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Mixed Signals Persist

June 26, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

One thing that stood out to me this week was the relentless amount of mixed intermarket signals.

On one hand, we have Lumber Futures getting completely destroyed. When I've ignored Lumber in the past, it's been a mistake.

This is probably something we shouldn't ignore:

On the other hand, if things were about to get worse for the Stock market, then why are Consumer Staples and Utilities both making new relative lows?

This is evidence of risk appetite, not risk aversion:

I think this all continues to speak to trading what's in front of you, and not overthinking the intermarket relationships.

We discussed all of...

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Best Charts of the Week

June 19, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. You can read more about the reasoning behind this post here

We're just interested in aggregating all of the charts we put together throughout the week and organizing them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

One thing that stood out to me this week was this table of new highs and new lows. It's a great way to visualize what's going on underneath the surface:

I also see here how investors have way too much exposure to stocks, compared to historical measures. We're seeing this in other sentiment data too.

But here's the Household Asset Allocation Stocks vs Bonds ratio:

And finally, I came across this old gem to remind us how important relative strength is for stocks and sectors in the market. Or in this case, a lack of relative strength.

There were plenty of warning signs in financials, particularly Lehman and Bear...

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The Stock Market Is NOT Getting Worse, At Least Not Yet...

June 12, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. You can read more about the reasoning behind this post here

We're just interested in aggregating all of the charts we put together throughout the week and organizing them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

One thing that stood out to me this week is the lack of deterioration underneath the surface.

We're just not getting an expansion in new lows.

Fewer new highs? Yes definitely. For a while now.

But more new lows? 

Not broadly speaking yet, no.

For the indexes to go lower, you need more and more stocks going lower. It's just math. 

And even if you look at short-term new lows, we're not seeing expansion yet either:

So for me, that's what I'm watching.

Is the market vulnerable for a correction? Yes.

But without an expansion in new lows, it's...