From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Holy reversals, Batman!

The tactical direction flipped for the dollar and rates this morning on the heels of stronger-than-expected job growth. 

Whipsaws are dotting the charts, erasing weeks of progress.

How should we react?

Today, I want to show you a trade we can take to sidestep the market chop.

Live cattle futures are posting modest gains today (up roughly 0.50%) as they mosey toward last year’s high. 

Most importantly, they’re shrugging off the broad intraday volatility.

Plus, the structural uptrend remains intact. And I can’t help but wonder if and when lean hogs will catch up to cattle. 

Check out live cattle overlaid with lean hog futures:

These two markets tend to peak and trough together, often trending in the same...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks aren’t the only assets catching a bid.

Commodities are, too. 

Despite their current rallies, the average investor isn’t concerned with cocoa, cotton, and lean hog futures. 

I get it… What do lean hog futures have to do with Tesla $TSLA?

But Dr. Copper – with its Ph.D. in economics – is ripping higher this week. 

And crude oil is trading above our risk level outlined last month.

Check out crude oil futures slicing through the 75 level:

Kudos to those who took the signal, as it’s over a third of the way to our target of 83. 

Crude is up 0.75% today alone, heading into the close with an intra-day high of 78.21. I like seeing strength heading into Friday’s close, as it often spills into the following week.

I imagine crude will hit our target within the next few weeks.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Houthi rebels are rampaging in the Red Sea.

The result: Many carriers are taking the scenic route around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa instead of the Suez Canal. 

The longer route brings weeks-long delays and increased costs as the price to ship a 40-foot-long container has nearly doubled since late November.

It won’t be long before those additional charges trickle down to us, the consumer.

What are you going to do?

Buy marine shipping stocks!

Check out our custom equal-weight marine shipping index posting fresh eight-year highs:

I like buying base breakouts, especially when they reclaim critical shelves of former lows (notice the polarity zone marked by the ‘12 and ‘14 troughs and early ‘23 peak).

These often overlooked stocks (seriously, when's the last time you bought a shipping stock?) are also on the verge of breaking out versus the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

Cocoa futures have violated a parabolic trendline. 

And it may not be safe for bulls to hold their long positions…

Cocoa fell -2.50% on Monday, cementing last week’s trendline break.

Commodity markets tend to experience steep selloffs following dramatic rallies. Escalator up, elevator down.  

But buyers are refusing to throw in the towel here. In fact, Monday’s potential top is yielding a fresh 46-year high today – not bearish.

I will not short those new highs. Nevertheless, I want to prepare for Cocoa’s eventual decline.

Check out the March contract:

For now, 4094 marks the line in the sand. A break below that level flashes a sell signal. But only if today's run-up in price fails to hold.

My bias remains higher toward...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What goes up must come down.

It’s an old commodity market maxim that never fails to deliver. The cattle, sugar, and OJ markets embodied this truth last year. 

But as the calendar flips to 2024, it’s time to track those markets that failed to launch in 2023.

Here are three of my favorites…

Coffee

Unlike other softs such as cocoa and sugar, coffee failed to produce monster gains last year. 

But it’s now attempting to carve out a multi-year double bottom:

Notice the resistance level at approximately 197 coincides with a key retracement level and a shelf of former lows. That’s our breakout level.

Also, note that the 168 level proved an excellent area to define our risk and get long well before our current line in the sand. A similar early...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not concerned with last year’s winners heading into 2024.

Winners have a miraculous way of taking care of themselves (i.e. cattle, sugar, cocoa.) 

Instead, my focus centers on those markets that failed to launch. Markets like this…

No, I’m not talking about Gold. But it certainly fits the bill.

I’m referring to wheat.

Wheat never produced an explosive rally this year – at least nothing like we saw in 2022. But that could all change in the coming six months.

Check out Chicago wheat futures carving out a potential double-bottom pattern:

Wheat futures are taking the shape of a classic Adam and Eve formation – a sharp sell-off followed by a longer accumulation period.

In addition, the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are dominating the commodity space.

The rotation between energy and base & industrial metals colors the commodity markets as we near 2024.

Crude oil has slipped through buyers' hands since interest rates peaked in October. That much is obvious… 

But don’t short crude oil and its distillates just because copper and gold are catching a bid…

Check out the commodity subgroup performance since the US 10-year yield $TNX peaked in the fall:

Energy has clearly cooled, while precious and base metals have led the pack.

This makes sense as rates fall. But markets don’t move in a straight line.

Notice the equal-weight energy index stopped falling mid-month around the same time it ran into a logical area of support relative to the equal-weight base and industrial metals index.

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are beginning to shine.

Gold’s new all-time high has captivated the masses. But all that glitters isn’t gold.

In fact, base and industrial metals are also providing ample trading opportunities.

Check out ol’ Dr. Copper challenging near-term resistance:

A decisive close above 3.91 set the path of least resistance toward the year-to-date highs at approximately 4.25.

It’s difficult to imagine a more bullish scenario for global equities aside from a continued expansion in the new highs list.

As much as I enjoy trading futures, I can’t ignore the money flowing into stocks.

If the expansion in new highs isn’t enough, stocks outperforming commodities should grab your attention.

With that in...

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Whenever we want to gauge animal spirits in the precious metals space, we resort to our trusty intermarket ratios.

Two weeks ago in our Gold report, we covered the notable bounce we were witnessing in the Silver/Gold ratio, pointing to brewing risk appetite within this space. And this week, we outlined a bullish trade in the iShares Silver ETF off the back of this recent momentum.

But when we take this relationship one step further, we see a similar situation in the relationship between Silver and Gold mining stocks.

Here's a long-term weekly chart of this ratio:

Silver mining stocks are at their lowest levels since the inception of the fund relative to their less-volatile and lower beta Gold mining counterparts. This would be a very logical place to see a bounce in this ratio. Especially with momentum diverging on these most recent lows, if there were ever a place for Silver miners to see some relief on a relative basis, this would be it.

Now, to be clear, the primary trend...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are losing ground as money flows back into stocks and bonds in hopes of a Santa Claus rally.

Yet fresh strength in equities isn’t completely leaving commodities in the dust. In fact, numerous bullish developments are underway for raw materials.

Dr. Copper is working its way higher. Crude oil is refusing to throw in the towel despite increased selling pressure. And softs such as orange juice, cocoa, and sugar are flying toward fresh decade highs.

That doesn’t sound bearish to me, especially when considering new buying opportunities in the grain markets…

First, check out the stock-to-commodity ratio:

The S&P 500 $SPY is violating a multi-year downtrend line relative to the CRB Index, signaling a potential trend reversal underway. 

It’s undoubtedly...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The tide is turning for commodities now that the dollar and rates are falling.

Crude oil is relinquishing its leadership role. Gold and silver are catching a bid. And copper is digging in at former support.

But it’s not only base and precious metals bouncing off critical levels…

Check out our Equal-weight Commodity Index refusing to roll over:

Our commodity index, comprised of an equally weighted basket of 33 commodities, is finding support at a shelf of former highs. This is the principle of polarity at its finest – former resistance turning into support.

While it’s still too early to get behind the next broad-based rally in commodities, copper-related mining stocks are following Dr. Copper’s lead...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Everywhere you look, commodities argue a strong case for the next supercycle.  

Live cattle, feeder cattle, sugar, cocoa, and orange juice are all amid historic rallies. Even gold’s resilience in an environment where it should struggle speaks to an underlying demand for raw materials.     

Well, perhaps not everywhere…

While orange juice busts loose on a parabolic advance and cocoa rips toward all-time highs, copper futures barely exceed their year-to-date lows.

On the bright side, it stopped falling.

Check out copper digging in at key pivot lows from earlier this spring:

I see a potential double-bottom taking shape.

Yes, it’s still trading below a multi-month downtrend line. Yes, momentum...