Did you know China outperformed the United States stock market in 2024? We have the data.

We think this relative strength will persist, and if that's the case, don't forget about copper!

We discussed the long-term positive correlation between Chinese equities and copper futures a few months ago. 

Why does this relationship exist?

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper and accounts for over 50% of global consumption. 

If one is going to work, so will the other.

More importantly, copper futures are testing a key level of interest:

Copper futures are potentially carving out the right shoulder of a multi-year inverted head and shoulders pattern.

This consolidation is happening in a primary uptrend: from 2020 to 2021, copper futures rallied nearly...

Crude oil is setting up for a big move, and almost nobody is paying attention. In fact, sentiment in the energy trade couldn’t be more bearish right now. Everyone hates it, everyone. 

As Strazza said on our call yesterday, “Even Warren Buffett is losing money on this one.” That’s the vibe.

XLE keeps dropping, the bearish sentiment intensifies, yet producers are stepping in and buying. That’s a bullish signal if I’ve ever seen one.

There are plenty of reasons to start liking energy here, especially when headlines like these are flying under the radar of most U.S. investors. 

Sure, this crisis might trigger a short term pop, but I’m not in it for a flash move, I’m looking for a trend. 

And the pieces for a sustainable breakout are falling into place.

Let’s talk about seasonality. Most people think energy’s best season is summer. Makes sense, right? But the data tells a different story. Energy peaks in the summer, then drifts into bearish seasonals, until now.

The sweet spot for energy? It’s right...

Mr. Market keeps sending us inflationary signals. Have you noticed?

Last Friday, we talked about cattle futures potentially leading bond yields higher. 

Boy, was that the case this week as bond yields soared on the heels of an FOMC meeting.

We've also talked about a rotation into the energy sector, which has been in the penalty box for most of this bull market.

While this hasn't happened at an index level yet, there have been pockets of strength, like uranium and...

President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.

The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.

Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.

Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:

As you can see, cattle futures and bond yields are structurally similar but sometimes diverge from one another. In the lower pane, we've included the 200-day rolling correlation to highlight the past (and current) divergences in price.

The biggest problem with correlation analysis is that it doesn't tell us which direction the lines will likely go next.

However, the primary trends have been higher since the 2020 low, and the odds favor that the primary uptrends will eventually reassert themselves.

And we think that's currently underway, with live cattle futures closing this week at the highest price in history.

We've been...

The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.

But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.

The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.

They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.

Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:

The top five holdings are cocoa (14.8%), coffee (13%), live cattle (11.9%), sugar (11.6%), and corn (11.4%), several of which we've recently discussed.

As you can...

My cousin wasn't asking me about crypto during this year's Thanksgiving feast. 

Instead, he wanted to know which commodity to buy after the historic cocoa trade.

Without hesitation, I told him, "coffee."

And I really believe that!

Let's talk about why.

Our Soft Commodity Index is testing a critical level of interest:

The index peaked and rolled over in 2011 and has carved out a massive basing pattern in the years since then. If and when the bulls resolve this pattern, we want to be long.

On a relative basis, soft commodities are printing fresh 52-week highs versus the broader commodity complex. This is precisely what we're looking for in a leadership group, and we expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future.

Cocoa futures recently resolved a 45-year base and put the bears in a dirt nap, and we think coffee futures are up next:

As you can see, coffee is at its highest level since it peaked in 1977, following a face-ripping 600% rally in two years.

A close above 340 would mark the end of a nearly 50-year consolidation and the beginning of a new uptrend. 

And we suspect...

Last week, we identified a bullish momentum divergence in the commodities versus stocks ratio at a shelf of former lows.

The evidence suggests we're on the verge of a new era of commodity outperformance.

If we're right, it's time to prepare a list of our favorite setups to seize this opportunity.

We've already covered promising setups in uranium and solar.

Now, let's focus on oil and gas, and here's why:

First, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline have been consolidating above a shelf of former highs for more than two years, and the risk is skewed in favor of the bulls.

Until the bears can resolve these consolidations to the downside, we want to continue betting these levels hold as support.

...

In technical analysis kindergarten, you'll learn there are 3 asset classes: stocks, bonds, AND commodities.

Without all 3, you're missing a piece of the puzzle and are putting yourself at a disadvantage.

Since commodities peaked in absolute and relative terms in 2022, they have dramatically underperformed stocks.

It's gotten to the extent where there's not any momentum to the downside remaining.

Commodities have carved out a massive bullish momentum divergence relative to stocks since the start of 2024:

As you can see, DBC/SPY has made lower highs and lower lows all year while the 14-day RSI (momentum) has made higher highs and higher lows.

In addition, the ratio is at the same level it was when it bottomed in the prior cycle and began a multi-year uptrend. 

It's now or never. If the commodity bulls are going to reverse this downtrend versus stocks, they need to show up now.

The Invesco Commodity Index $DBC has carved out a textbook basing pattern:

The Invesco Commodity Index is composed of over 55% energy, 10%...

We recently discussed the extreme demand for uranium stocks as the AI boom progresses.

But what about the other alternative energy equities?

Solar stocks have been amongst the most hated in the entire market, right up there with pot stocks and China.

The Invesco Solar ETF $TAN looks ready to explode higher:

The fund is a market-cap-weighted basket of solar stocks from all around the world.

One of our favorite long-term momentum indicators, the monthly percentage price oscillator (PPO), has been improving for months and is on the verge of triggering a buy signal.

In addition, TAN has carved out a short term reversal pattern. An upside resolution will coincide with a monthly PPO cross, and we want to look for opportunities to buy the best stocks in the industry.

On a relative basis, TAN is at a critical level of interest versus the S&P 500:

This level represents where it began to outperform the broader market in the past.

Adding to our conviction, the 14-week RSI has carved out...

November marks the beginning of the best three-month period of the year for stocks and a brand-new NBA season. Moreover, the sportsbooks have priced in my local OKC Thunder as the Western Conference champions.

It's a fantastic time to be alive.

Now is also a great time to take a step back and assess the underlying trends.

Earlier this year, we outlined our Fab 5 Charts for a 2024 equity bull market. 

One of the five key groups we selected was homebuilders, which have been on an absolute tear:

Homebuilders have experienced tremendous markup phases this cycle, nearly doubling in many instances. The visual above shows the SPDR Homebuilders ETF $XHB components sorted by proximity to the 52-week low (the y axis) and 52-week high (the x axis). The 14-day RSI is the size of each bubble.

The homies have been one of the hottest groups of stocks...

Each year, Americans buy over 600 million pounds of candy and eat over 1 pound each for Halloween.

It's a lot...

But are there opportunities to profit from Americans ritualistically eating way too much candy? You betcha!

Let's talk about it.

After a historic 190% run earlier this year, cocoa futures have formed a textbook consolidation pattern:

In addition, chocolate bears have failed to register an oversold reading as the bulls have maintained control during this consolidation phase.

We like owning cocoa futures above 6,900, with a target of 11,700 over the coming 2-4 months.

Sugar futures look poised to retest last year's high:

After rallying 20% in a single week last month, the sweet commodity has formed a sweet bullish continuation pattern. If and when this pattern is resolved, we want to own sugar futures in anticipation of a fresh leg higher.

In addition to the chart pattern, the bulls registered a 14-day RSI reading above 80 during the last leg higher, as they were in...

Uranium stocks have been screaming higher and show no signs of slowing down.

As the AI Revolution demands more and more power, big technology companies are turning to nuclear energy.

The market is sending a very clear message... we (as investors) need to increase our exposure to uranium stocks.

Check out the recent performance from uranium stocks:

Each bubble's location is determined by its 10-day change on the x-axis, the trailing 3-month return on the y-axis, and the 14-day RSI is the size.

LEU, OKLO, and SMR are the stocks that stand out the most amongst their peers. Each of these 3 leaders is involved with nuclear energy for the AI boom.

The VanEck Uranium Energy ETF $NLR is decisively resolving a multi-decade base:

This fund holds large positions in the largest uranium stocks like Constellation Energy $CEG, Cameco $CCJ, and BWX Technologies $BWXT.

The breakout to new multi-decade highs is happening as breadth in the industry is expanding.

The GlobalX Uranium ETF $URA has a large Cameco...