From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Goldielocks’s soft landing is proving sticky.

Commodities are outperforming stocks and bonds. Interest rates are rising worldwide, and investors are anticipating increased inflationary pressures—not multiple rate cuts—this year.

In fact, inflation expectations are reaching levels not seen since June 2022…

Check out the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ETF $TIP vs. the nominal US Treasury Bond ETF $IEF ratio zoomed out twenty years:

Monster base. But I don’t think of this ratio in those terms. Instead, I use it to gauge investors’ desire for inflation protection. 

The perceived need to take action against inflation is heading back toward the upper bounds of a 15-year range, marked by the 2022 high and the end of the prior commodity supercycle in 2011.

Investors bracing for higher inflation makes sense as global yields rise and commodities climb.

Yet over the trailing three...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Failed breakouts and trading ranges dominate the charts.

It’s a mixed-up, messy market environment wherever you look — bonds, stocks, commodities, forex…

US treasuries are a prime example, playing it cool with muted volatility and tight credit spreads while yields climb.

Perhaps the near-term rise in rates makes it difficult to grasp, but the US benchmark yield is actually chopping within a broader corrective phase.

Before we dive into the charts, I want to make two things clear: 

One, I am not an Elliottician or an Elliott Wave specialist on any level. And two, if you give five Elliotticians the same chart, you’re likely to get five different wave counts.

Nevertheless, my journey to earning the CMT designation exposed me to the Elliott Theory, and I find it prudent when examining the US 10-year yield.

So here we go…...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Can we all give the rate cut debate a break?

Everyone is obsessing over the Fed’s rate cut plans. Meanwhile, interest rates are climbing to their highest level since early December.

Instead of following Fed gossip and what-ifs, focus on what is: Yields continue to creep higher as inflationary assets rip.

Check out our Global Benchmark Rate Composite, an equal-weight basket of Developed Market 10-year yields (Germany, UK, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, and the US):

Our global composite is holding well above the lower bounds of a yearlong range, catching toward the underside of a flat 200-day moving average. 

Yields on sovereign debt show no signs of an imminent collapse.

Could rates roll over in the coming quarters? Absolutely! 

But the data fails to support a falling interest rate thesis. In fact, the charts suggest quite the opposite…

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Fed abides.

Three rate cuts remain the base case for 2024. Everyone had this scenario penciled in, including the bond market.

The US benchmark yield is holding at the same levels as last month. T-bonds are catching a modest bid. And bonds are…well, boring. 

Perhaps it’s not an ideal scenario for bond bears, but stock market bulls are welcoming the muted response…

The Bond Market Volatility Index $MOVE—the credit market’s equivalent to the VIX—is registering its lowest reading since spring 2022.

The last time the MOVE hit these levels, the Fed had yet to embark on its current hiking cycle. (We all know what followed—an epic downturn for bonds and stocks.)

But interest rate hikes seem irrelevant at this point. The conversation now revolves around cuts and how many we could expect by yearend.

It doesn’t matter whether we witness a cut later this summer or not. Investor positioning...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

A risk-on revival has captivated the markets.

Investors are rising to their feet…

They’re buying stocks. They’re buying crypto. They’re buying gold.

Hell, they’re even buying high-yield Emerging Market bonds!

Check out the Emerging Market High Yield Bond ETF $EMHY breaking to a new multi-year high:

I throw this EMHY breakout into the same camp as the Biotech ETF $XBI blast off — risk-on.

It’s downright impossible to hold a bearish outlook while investors dance with the riskiest bonds on offer.

If you actively trade bond ETFs, you gotta be long EMHY above 37. For me, the EMHY breakout isn’t a trading event. 

Instead, it’s all about the behavior behind...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries are taking a back seat to risk assets.

Bond market volatility is declining. Credit spreads are tightening. And Emerging Market high-yield bonds ($EMHY) are breaking out. 

Meanwhile, stocks are posting new all-time highs.

So, how high will interest rates climb over the near term?

My gut tells me not far — at least not in the coming weeks or months…

Check out the US benchmark rate finding resistance at approximately 4.33:

Last month’s high marks a logical ceiling for the US benchmark rate. 

Those former highs coincide with a key retracement level based on the run-up into the October 2023 peak. Plus, the 10-year yield paused at the same level for almost a month during last year's rally. That’s not a coincidence.

If the US 10-year breaks above 4.33, volatility will hit...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to rule the markets with an iron fist, mercilessly punishing any who doubt his supreme will. 

Or maybe I should stop daydreaming at my desk. 

Either way, this little fantasy is a helluva lot more entertaining than the monotonous uptrend in US Treasury yields. 

But I’ve found boredom – when not taken seriously – can lead to neglect.

That’s where process steps in to save the day. 

It’s hard for the market to catch us off guard if we’re constantly reviewing the charts.

And these next two bond charts demand our full attention…

First, the High Yield Bond ETF $HYG relative to the US Treasury Bond ETF $IEI: 

It’s an oldie but a goodie. I look at this chart every single day. 

It’s that important – not just to the bond market, but the entire marketplace, including stocks and...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The FOMC stuck to its script this week, kicking the can and keeping rates steady.

Everyone was expecting the news. But the market wasn’t expecting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (the man, the myth, the legend) to completely dash its hopes of a March cut. 

Strangely enough, rates continue to fall on the news – even as markets adjust to the possibility of the initial rate cut now coming in May.

Before you run out to buy US treasury bonds, check out the overlay chart of the US 2- and 30-year yields:

There’s a big difference.

The 2-year yield is churning sideways, reflecting the market’s expectations of the FOMC’s next move – nothing in the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, the 30-year yield is turning lower. Unlike the short end of the curve, the long end gauges the prospect of long-term economic growth.

What do we do with this information?

Buy long-duration bonds! That’s a much better option than sitting around dreaming of an...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

High-yield bonds are printing fresh highs relative to US Treasuries – signs of a healthy risk appetite. 

Bond market volatility is collapsing, allowing equities to take center stage. 

And interest rates are trending lower since peaking last October.

But looking ahead to next month, we could see rates correct higher.

The US 10-year yield tends to rise in February – more so than any other month of the year except April:

It would make sense for this seasonal trend to continue.

The 10-year yield dropped more than 100 basis points during Q4 last year. 

The Fed’s hiking cycle has desensitized many to the large swings in treasury yields. Nevertheless, that’s a significant move for the US benchmark.

A retracement in the coming weeks compliments a more prolonged decline over the coming months and quarters as...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Inflation is proving sticky.

So what?

Stocks remain buoyant.

And bonds – the largest market in the world – continue to reveal a risk-on environment.

High-yield bonds relative to Treasuries measure risky junk bonds' performance versus the safest fixed-income asset, US Treasury bonds. 

The key characteristics of these assets create a critical risk gauge for bond and equity markets, as risk-seeking behavior in the bond market also bodes well for risk assets.

Check out the High Yield versus US Treasury Bond ratio ($HYG/$IEI):

Bonds supported a stock market rally last quarter. And the HYG/IEI ratio was one of those charts screaming, "All systems go!"  

It’s an easy way to monitor...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US treasuries finished 2023 with a bang, hitting our initial targets before Christmas.

But the long-bond trade is losing its luster.

Resistance is now coming into play as the bond market catches its breath…

Check out the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT with a 200-day simple moving average:

I’m not a big fan of moving averages. I don’t like how they distract from price and create extra noise on the charts.

Regardless, many market participants track the long-term moving average. Bond bulls are shouting their battle cries as TLT peaks its head back above the 200-day mark.  

So, is it time to get long bonds?

No!   

The 200-day moving average is still sloping downward when we take a step back with a weekly chart:

US T-bonds remain in a structural downtrend. Plus,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

JC asked me how far I thought interest rates would pull back during a recent internal meeting.

The question caught me off guard since I trade bonds, not interest rates. I know my bond trade targets off the top of my head, but not the corresponding rate levels. 

As soon as the call ended, I applied Fibonacci analysis to the 30- and 10-year yields…

The 3.50 level marks a logical area for the 30-year yield to stop falling.

That level coincides with a shelf of former lows and a critical retracement level covering the rally off the 2020 low.

The similar level for the 10-year yield stands at 3.25:

Whether rates pull back to these retracement levels is anyone’s guess. 

One thing is for certain: interest rates have...