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Massive Top In Consumer Discretionary

September 10, 2024

After Covid there was no sector that did better than Consumer Discretionary stocks.

Locking everyone down and sending them all a check to go spend, as it turns out, was great for the Consumer Discretionary sector. 

And then 2021 ended and the correction in Consumer began...

Years in the making, here is the massive top in Consumer Discretionary relative to the S&P500 that's got people talking...

Or is it that the Consumer stocks are just finding support once again where they did a decade ago?

Is the squeeze now ready to get going?

It's interesting that Chip Stocks find themselves in a very similar position.

See: Head & Shoulders Top In Semiconductors

But don't lose sight on what's happening in Consumer Discretionary right now.

With lower lows in the relative price chart, you're seeing a series of higher lows in momentum. 

Here's the weekly chart showing exactly that from a longer-term perspective:

And it's not just the longer-term.

You're seeing it on multiple timeframes.

Here's the daily plot showing the exact same thing...

If this is the massive top in Discretionary that's going to bring down the whole market, you're going to see it in its largest components: Amazon, Tesla and Home Depot, which combined represent almost half the entire sector index.

But is a massive top in the consumer the bet you want to make in the middle of a bull market?

Or is this not the middle and the bull market is already over?

Which are you betting on?

Personally, I'm not convinced that these are tops. I'm not convinced that the bull market is over. I'm not convinced that these are all about to collapse.

The reason is because we've yet to see any evidence that would suggest this is going to happen.

Where is the expansion in stocks making new lows?

Why do they keep digging in and buying them up when they need to?

Call me when we actually see breakdowns. Call me when we see these "massive tops" actually being completed. Then we'll act accordingly.

But we haven't seen it yet.

We discussed this all on last week's LIVE Conference Call for Premium Members of ASC.

Make sure to catch the replay here, download the 130 charts and review each of the trade ideas.

If you're not already a member of ASC Premium Research, you can register here for a RISK FREE trial and check it all out for yourself.

Email me and introduce yourself. We love to hear from you!

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6 of the First 7 Doubled

The purpose of our Breakout Multiplier strategy is to look for home run trades. We're focused more on how big our winners are, and less so on our winning percentage. 

But so far, both of those things are working beautifully.

Below is a snapshot of some of our recent positions in Breakout Multiplier.

Six of the first seven Breakout Multiplier options trades we put on were doubles. And most of them did so within a week. 

This is the power of Breakout Multiplier. You combine these ideas with our Rangefinder software, you have a deadly combination…

Feel free to enjoy right here.

JC

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