From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Copper Springs into Action… Buyers Dig Copper… Copper, F%$# Yeah!
Those are a few titles I spitballed last night. But the markets wouldn’t have it.
This morning, the overall theme of the metals space turned on its head, trashing my bullish bias.
To be clear, I still have a favorable outlook for base and precious metals over longer time frames…
Yet we’re all forced to navigate the near-term selling pressure.
Earlier this week, Dr. Copper found support right where we would expect – a key retracement level:
Buyers stepped in and drove prices higher, regaining more than 3% since mid-week. However, sellers are having the last laugh this morning as they take it back and some before lunchtime.
Copper futures fell 3.50% during the morning session.
Luckily, today is National Donut Day. So treat yourself, as the afternoon session could get ugly for the metal complex.
As long as copper futures are trading below 4.55, the path of least resistance points lower toward the next potential support zone of 4.15.
I expect a risk-averse behavior to spread if copper’s correction picks up momentum. So far this morning, Silver is down -6.00%. Gold is down -2.75%. And Platinum is down -4.00%.
It’s not the way gold bugs want to end the week.
On the bright side, even a pullback below 4.15 does not change the structural outlook for Copper. We need a deeper correction below 3.95 before turning bearish.
Of course, sellers will likely challenge our risk levels and protective stops well before we see a three-dollar handle in copper. So stick to your trading plan and cut your losers short.
Remember, you can move your trailing stop higher – but never lower.
The market will always offer another stellar opportunity in the future. But we can’t take advantage of those opportunities if we run out of capital.
Alright, I’m headed to Krispy Kreme for a chocolate glazed and blueberry cake donut.
How about you?
–Ian
COT Heatmap Highlights
- Commercials posted their largest net-long position for sugar in three years.
- Commercial short positioning for silver still hovers just above a new three-year record.
- Commercial hedgers bought more than 37,000 contracts of 30-year T-bond futures, cutting their net-short position by almost half.
Click here to download the All Star Charts COT Heatmap.
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