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How's Your Bear Market Going So Far?

March 14, 2020

These are the types of markets that are a statisticians dream come true. They get to run all sorts of scans and tests to see how long it's been since volatility did this or the rate of change in the S&P500 did that. To be honest, it's all a bunch of bullshit. The market doesn't care about your stats.

I'm not going to go over all of them because I don't find them very helpful. In fact, I find them incredibly deceiving and, even worse, distracting. I felt that way on the way up with their stupid, "S&P500 hasn't moved 1% in a single day in x amount of days....". Who gives a damn?

Today is no different.

Let's talk about what actually matters.

2750 in the S&P500 was support in the first half of 2019. We closed the week still below that. We might have a slight bullish momentum divergence, but if S&Ps are below 2750, we put this index in the "No-man's land" category:

*No-man's land meaning: Not a buy and not a sell.

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