(Commodities Weekly) Soft Commodities: The Most Bifurcated Commodity Complex 📈📉

We've been obnoxiously bullish on soft commodities recently. 

And it's for a good reason. 

Coffee just broke out of a nearly 50-year basing pattern. It's hard to bearish when the price is making new all-time highs.

But the group is becoming bifurcated.

Orange juice futures were the early leader in the soft space. The price made a new all-time high in 2022.

Unfortunately (for the bulls), the uptrend in OJ seems to be over, at least for now.

Check out this quarter's candlestick 👇

As you can see, orange juice futures resolved a nearly 50-year basing pattern in 2022. This pattern is almost identical to coffee futures. 

The price rallied for years in one of the most historic moves for a commodity ever. 

This chart will be in textbooks one day. It's like chart porn.

However, more recently, the upside momentum has departed. And it has happened in a big way.

OJ hasn't been this oversold since 1989 📉

We've highlighted the 14-day RSI approaching single digits in the lower pane. This has been an absolute blood bath.

The price has fallen for 14 consecutive days as the remaining bagholders try to get out any available price.

While it's likely due for a bounce in the short term, there's nothing bullish about an overwhelming amount of selling pressure.

We expect more corrective action in orange juice futures for the foreseeable future.

When do you think the OJ buyers will come back? Let us know what you think.

Commitment of Traders Highlights

• Commercial hedgers added nearly 1,000 contracts to their net-short orange juice position.
• Commercials added over 2,200 contracts to one of their most significant net-short Japanese yen positions ever.
• Commercial hedgers added nearly 1,000 contracts to their net-short feeder cattle position. This is their largest net-short position ever.

👉 Click here to download the All Star Charts COT Heatmap 

Commodities Trade of the Week

Today, we're outlining the $6B oil and gas company founded in 1919, Comstock Resources $CRK.

The company specializes in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of natural gas and oil. Most of its operations are in North Louisiana and East Texas.

Jerry Jones, the Dallas Cowboys owner, is a significant company shareholder, strengthening our conviction in its underlying fundamentals.

In addition, they reported earnings earlier this week and smashed expectations. The market expected 2 cents of earnings per share, and they reported 16 cents.

The stock had one of its best earnings reactions in years and is flirting with a massive base breakout. 

It's also one of our favorite equity vehicles for expressing a bullish thesis on natural gas, which is making new 52-week highs. 

Here's how we're trading CRK: 👇