Technical analysts often say, "From compression comes expansion."
In other words, as markets become more coiled, buyers or sellers are ultimately forced to front up. This period of shrinking volatility is often met with violent unwinds - in either direction.
So when we see these periods of notable reductions in volatility, pay attention because the resolution often sets the tone for weeks and months to come.
Just take a look at how tight the Bollinger Bands have become in Bitcoin:
Through this measure, volatility is at its lowest point since October last year...
In an asset class where 80% drawdowns are a regular occurrence, it goes without saying you need to manage your damn risk.
By simply identifying a level where you get out of the trade, you are at a substantial competitive advantage, in this asset class more than any other.
There should be no shame in flipping your approach as new data comes in. At our shop, we pride ourselves on it.
But to the crypto junkies and laser eyes crowd, that'll get you called a "FUD'ster" or "paper hands".
Don't listen to these people.
They're truly worse than the gold bugs and permabears. They don't deserve your attention.
With any market, not just crypto, our primary goal is to make money. And to do that, in more cases than not, we have to play defense. It's what we're doing in stocks right now - it's just a regular part of putting money to work.
It takes time to learn the intricacies of a topic.
For those who've spent a good deal of their career working with other asset classes, the lingo that youngsters throw around while discussing their favorite crypto projects can be daunting.
There are dozens of indicators you've likely never seen.
People are sharing charts where you may not even know what's going on.
And there's arguably more noise to deal with in this space, more so than any other group of assets.
But I think we can all take solace in the fact that no one is a complete expert in this stuff.
You guys see that massive spike in inflows of Tether into exchanges?
Exchanges just saw their 3rd largest inflow of Tether of all time (and by all time, we mean a few years - this is Crypto we're talking about).
The thought process here is that if people are transferring their Tether into exchanges, they're getting ready to load up on these crypto-assets, driving prices higher.
The last time an inflow of this magnitude took place, Bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of weeks.
It's shakeout city in the world of Cryptocurrencies right now.
Failed breakdowns. Bull hooks. Bear traps. Call them what you will, as it's not the nomenclature that matters, but instead the mechanics of these formations which often result in swift moves in the opposite direction...
And these failed breakdowns aren't just taking place denominated in US Dollars, but we're also seeing this exact behavior in coins relative to Bitcoin.
Following Bitcoin's bounce back these last few days after some sustained selling, there's plenty of failed breakdowns out there in the Crypto space right now.
In essence, when price undercuts its former lows, stop losses get hit, and longs throw in the towel. At the same time, bears heavily jump in and enter short.
Then as the market begins to rally back above those former lows, shorts are now underwater, and they're forced to cover. While they're buying back their positions to unwind the trade, longs see price on a tear higher and fold into buying back their old position. Momentum traders see these gains and jump on the bandwagon too, forcing even more shorts to cover.