While most cryptocurrencies themselves have done well since the summer, many of the most prominent crypto stocks and miners have been painful underperformers.
But, given that many of the biggest coins are in the process of forming potential tradable bottoms, there are early signs of this changing.
Many crypto stocks are also in a process of testing critical levels of support, and the risk versus reward is currently more in favor of the bulls over bears.
Before we dive into individual names, here's a look at the sector as a whole.
In Monday's report, we outlined how conditions haven't fully developed for a high-conviction dip-buy. We're anticipating a high concentration of whipsaws before these assets find a tradable bottom.
At the same time, from a risk-versus-reward perspective, the recent pivot lows are proving to be important levels of interest right now.
In a weekend note, we'd asked whether this was simply a retest of the crash low -- or whether it was still crashing.
Fast-forward today, and the market is respecting this level -- certainly an important one to be watching.
Over the last few weeks, we've been pointing to the growing leverage in the derivative markets exacerbating volatility.
In our last report, we also outlined how we're anticipating this to unwind in the coming weeks. This continues to be the key theme for the first quarter.
Additionally, a variety of metrics suggest the market is strongly in oversold conditions, offering a favorable level for long-term investors to add to spot positions.
Meanwhile, derivatives and macro conditions present a headwind for speculative dip-buyers.
High open interest combined with diminishing implied volatility, increased price stability, and thin futures volume all contribute to a scenario where the probabilities of a long/short squeeze are elevated.
We're still in elevated cash positions and, for the most part, still sitting on the sidelines.
Last week, we outlined how the recent recovery in leverage in the derivative markets combined with thin end-of-year liquidity would exacerbate volatility. This same message continues to ring true.
Open interest is elevated, and the market has become susceptible to an unwind via a long/short squeeze in the coming weeks. Even a small supply-and-demand catalyst has the potential to cause a big shift given these current market conditions.
We want to dedicate this week's report to describing how we're approaching this period and defining the probabilities we're weighing with each scenario.
We've seen this play out, with most crypto assets trading under contracting price action.
The case continues to be if we're below the 53,000 to 54,000 zone, we want to remain patient before deploying cash into more aggressive long positions.
There have been a few exceptions that we'll discuss in today's report. But patience continues to be the prudent approach for the vast majority of names out there for now.
This week's biggest development is a dramatic rise in speculative activity, exacerbating volatility and the probability of a long/short squeeze.
Two weeks ago, we detailed why we're sitting on the sidelines with an expectation of sideways price action to close the year.
Fast-forward to today, and the same diagnosis applies for Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class. The macro risk environment is beginning to favor the bear camp, and it's certainly not a time to be aggressively pushing longs.
Meanwhile, the spot flows seen on-chain continue to diverge from price action, suggesting that once this consolidation phase is complete, an upward break appears to be the higher likelihood scenario.
We're watching for Bitcoin to reclaim 53,000 before we put our elevated cash back to work in positions.
Until then, we're avoiding a good majority of trading action in this low-conviction tape where whipsaws have become commonplace.