Yesterday we documented how we're shifting back to our defensive strategy. Tight trading correlations to weak equities dictate this approach.

At the same time, we've been stopped out of most altcoin long positions.

There's little to discuss in the way of tactical trading opportunities.

Even the strongest names can't get it done when we look at the alts. We're seeing many failed breakouts, and there's little to like in shorter time frames right now.

Here are a few examples.

Over the last few weeks, we've promoted our bullish crypto thesis, even going so far as to argue the Bitcoin bear market had concluded.

As of the writing of this note, we're currently watching Bitcoin lose our risk management level of 42,500. We entered into some small hedging positions on the loss of 46,000, but now we're looking to add to our hedging positions/raising cash this morning.

This is the video recording of our April 8, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We keep saying it: There are just so many good setups out there.

You've noticed?

This is the first time in months that there's generally a good shape to the price action in these beaten-up altcoins.

Welcome to our weekly crypto open letter.

The last few weeks have seen a sizeable shift in our approach. Here's a summary of this period:

This is the video recording of our April 1, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Wait for your perfect pitch.

We say it all the time.

There are no called strikes on Wall Street. In other words, we’re not penalized for not swinging, like you are in baseball.

We have the ability to be patient, to a certain extent at least, depending on your mandate. But most of us don’t have mandates! Even one of the best hitters of all time struggled when he swung at bad pitches.

In this video from our Charting School, we compare Ted Williams’ batting average when he swung at good pitches versus when he swung at bad ones.

Why do we bring this up?

Well, what's the last few months been for crypto traders?

Tumbleweeds...

If you've been watching the tape and actively trading these markets in this messy tape, your probabilities of success have more than likely diminished. It's why we've discussed so few trades apart from a few standouts in this period.

We've been waiting for our perfect pitch.

But with the Bitcoin macro bear coming to an end, is this the time to start swinging?

We think so.

...

In last week's letter, we outlined a handful of key bullish developments leading us to forecast a high probability of an upward resolution from this consolidation.

Alleviation of the selling in futures and renewed spot demand pointed to a high probability of Bitcoin resolving higher out of this multi-month trading range.

As of the writing of this note, we've seen this take place, with Bitcoin taking out resistance at 46,000.

More aggressive long positions are now warranted.

This is the video recording of our March 25, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We can't help but notice that all the dinosaur coins are moving right now.

Those coins that got heavily pumped into 2017 and never recovered (think names like ZEC, DASH, XRP, XLM, ETC, etc.) have always gone through cycles of bleeding lower for months on end before getting aggressively pumped.

Just look at them over the last week or two.

When these bad boys move, they move.

There's one contrarian play we like from this rotation as a tactical long.

In yesterday's note we outlined our new tactical approach to the crypto market.

For those who missed it, after playing defense and remaining patient on the sidelines for many months, we're now seeing signs conducive to Bitcoin resolving higher from its multi-month consolidation.

Alongside this, we're noticing a ton of great setups in the alts.

It's been a while since there's been such a breadth of good setups, which can only be seen as a positive development.

For some time, we've reiterated our neutral approach. By staying out of the market in this sloppy tape, we've avoided emotional and financial whipsaws.

During this period, we've been downright obnoxious about how little edge there is in pushing longs.

But this could finally be changing.

As we'll discuss in today's note, we're seeing signs selling pressures are beginning to subside. Price action is heavily coiled, and the clock's ticking for a resolution out of this range.

Looking ahead into April, we forecast a high probability of an upward resolution from this consolidation.