Seasonality is not the most heavily-weighted data point in my analysis.
It doesn’t even make the top three: price, price, and price.
Nevertheless, tracking seasonal patterns has proven quite valuable in past experiences, especially regarding commodities. (We discussed it today on What the FICC, outlining three strong seasonal tailwinds heading into the fall. Check it out below.)
Raw materials are clearly affected by the earth’s rotation around the sun.
And while these trends fail to produce explicit entry or exit signals, they do provide insight into potential market conditions (not unlike sentiment or COT positioning).
I use seasonality to help guide my focus to those areas of the market that deserve additional attention. Areas such as…