Ignoring Seasonal Trends

The best 3 month period of the year begins this week.

We know this.

But to me, the bigger question is how stocks did during what is historically the worst time of the year?

Remember how September and October are supposed to be terrible for stocks?

Well they weren't.

In fact, stocks rallied during September and October. All the major U.S. indexes were up.

Now we enter the Best 3 months: November - January. 

Here's what that looks like:

So if stocks couldn't go down in price during the worst period of the year, how do you think stocks will do when they're actually supposed to go up?

Zooming out, here are the returns of the major indexes during "The Worst 6 Months" of the year.

All of them were up double digits, when historically they were supposed to fall...

For me, we don't like to position ourselves according to seasonal tendencies.

The real value, in my experience, is looking back after the fact to see if the market acknowledged or ignored seasonal trends.

When the market is resilient during the bad times, historically that bodes very well for the upcoming good times.

Here is our Seasonal Composite showing the best time to be buying stocks is now.

"Buy in October and Get Yourself Sober", is how I learned it...

Our Seasonal Composite is an equally-weighted average of every year since 1950 (for the annual cycle), every election year since 1952 (for the 4-year Presidential cycle) and every 4th year of each decade since 1950 (for the Decennial Cycle).

This chart above shows exactly that in Blue, with the current year plotted in red.

It's a bull market. 

And we're buying stocks.

I did my best to discuss all of the most important trends and what we're doing about them in our latest LIVE video Conference Call. Check that out and review the details for each of the trades.

If you're not already a Premium Member of ASC Research, you can access that here RISK FREE.

Premium Members get 24/7 access to all our trade ideas, Premium Research and deep dives every day of the week, and private invitations to our LIVE Video Conference Calls, which I host twice a month.

Join the ASC Community here and then let me know what you think!

- JC