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Where are the new lows?

August 6, 2024

In order to have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, the prices of stocks need to fall.

That's just math.

But you know what hasn't happened? We really haven't seen the new lows list blowing up at all.

You would think that Monday would have seen a lot of new 52-week lows, considering the VIX practically tripled overnight, for the first time in the history of the stock market.

But you didn't see it at all.

Very few stocks actually made new 52-week lows.

But a lot of that has to do with the distance that most stocks are from new lows, considering that last month we saw the most amount amount of new 52-week highs on both the NYSE AND the Nasdaq.

So we want to take a little closer at some shorter-term time horizons to see if there were any real spikes in new lows.

As you can see here, the list of new 10-day lows hit the highest levels since Q1 last year. But the new 1-month and 3-month lows list could NOT even get to levels from last Fall, right before the year-end ripper.

Again, in order to have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, the prices of stocks need to fall.

We haven't exactly seen that, yet.

Another common characteristic of corrections and bear markets is an expansion in stocks hitting oversold conditions.

Remember, overbought conditions are normal for bull markets and healthy environments. You don't see oversold readings in bull markets. See: Momentum

And in this market, you're just not seeing those oversold readings at all - not in Large-caps, not in Mid-caps and not even in Small-caps:

We'll keep a close eye on market breadth this week to see if these sorts of bearish characteristics begin to appear.

It will be the first time in years that we've seen it. So it will definitely stand out.

But keep in mind - there are stocks working, even in this environment.

Sean and Strazza joined me live after yesterday’s closing bell for part two of our options education series for Breakout Multiplier Members.

But we covered a lot of other ground, and I want to make sure that you’re part of this important conversation.

Click here to join Breakout Multiplier and get access to yesterday’s session.

As planned, we explained “the Greeks” – delta, gamma, theta, and vega – and what they mean when it comes to our Breakout Multiplier strategy.

And, given what’s happened the last few days, we definitely wanted to talk about recent price action.

What we’re doing right now is using the Volatility Compression Indicator to identify opportunities to trade relative strength.

Strazza already notified members that he sold half of the open Breakout Multiplier positions in $CNK and $RKT for doubles. Now we’re enjoying free rides to outsized returns.

In fact we’ve “sold the double” on four out of five trades so far, with one of our winners going out at new all-time highs yesterday. We’re up 250% on a day when the Dow was down 1,000 points.

How many traders are this hot right now?

When we sell the double, we put ourselves in position for outsized returns. And we're paying for them with house money.

Basically, as Sean said at the end of today’s session, “We’re creating our own luck.”

Click here to learn more about how we’re doing it.

Cheers,

JC