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What's happening in Sonoma?

May 23, 2024

It's been a great week here in beautiful Sonoma!

Having the team together and inviting some smart friends to join us for the conversations has been amazing.

There are so many good ideas being passed around and new strategies that we're going to work on that it's exceeded all expectations.

And mine were high!

Look at AstraZeneca making new all-time highs:

Here's Uber retesting those former highs from the prior cycle...

In December we saw the most amount of stocks hitting new 20 day highs that we had seen in years.

This historically comes near the beginning of big market moves higher, not near the end....

Look at the data.

The hit rate is off the charts.

And to me, it's really just about thinking through what this actually means. Relentless buying pressure, to the degree that we saw in Q4 last year, is evidence of strong underlying demand for stocks:

So much so, that historically this strength continues for at least another year.

Meanwhile, look at the ripper in yields.

After a 40 year drawdown, the 50-week rate of change for US 30yr yields is like nothing we've ever seen before!

And in currencies, look out because here come Emerging Markets.

Look at EM Currencies vs the Euro, which in my opinion is the best representation of developed market currencies:

We've had such an amazing week of market discussions, idea generation, strategy sessions and so much more.

We even tasted some wine that may or may not have been a Chateau Fibonacci single vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon from Calistoga.

And it may or may not have been 3 different vintages of tastings ;)

I love this place.

We're blessed to have such an amazing crew and crazy smart friends.

Don't take these things for granted.

This is really special.

Cheers!

JC

*Email Mary if you're interested in the videos and slides from this week

 

 

 

 

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