Expiration Day Fireworks
I like to structure my “long-term” trades (which I define as anything longer than 2 weeks in duration) such that I don’t need to micromanage them. I don’t want to follow every tick. I’m busy with other things during the day, and I value my headspace too highly.
We’ve talked about this before, but to quickly reiterate: I can achieve this state by positioning myself in defined risk spreads, and, perhaps more importantly, being comfortable with the full amount of risk I’m taking.
These conditions remain true most of the time I’m in these trades.
However, when it changes is when the calendar turns to a new month and I’ve got a trade on with options that expire in this new month.
It becomes decision time.
For long premium plays (think long calls, debit spreads, etc), the first thing I look at: is the long option in the money, meaning is the underlying instrument trading beyond my strike price? If not, the decision is simple – exit the trade if there’s any premium left in it. Out-of-the-money long options will rapidly decay in value as we approach expiration. If there’s no premium left, there’s nothing to do. It’s now a lottery ticket.
However, if the long option is in the money, then I start watching it like a hawk. Generally speaking, I’ll continue holding the position as long as it doesn’t make a 3-5 low against me. I use discretion here, but definitely, anything below a five day low gets me out of the trade. I want to keep whatever I can of the open capital left in the position.
For short premium plays, as long as my short options are out-of-the-money, I’ll keep holding the position in an attempt to let my resting profit target order get hit. But as soon as any short options go in-the-money, I pull the chord. Negative gamma can turn a bad situation into a significantly worse one in a blink of an eye. So I’m out.
If you’re holding April options, you have three days to get out. Keep your eye on ‘em!
Trade 'em Well,
Sean McLaughlin
Chief Options Strategist
All Star Charts, Technical Analysis Research