The macro factors are all bearish and the market factors are all bullish. It is true that after a bottom market conditions will tend to improve ahead of macro conditions. But it is also true (and we had ample evidence of this last year) that market conditions are subject to false starts. In those situations embracing unsustainable strength can penalize investors. This a trust but verify environment in which indicators of sustained trend have more weighting than one-off signals of opportunity. With the weight of the evidence balanced between risk and opportunity, this may be a time to move toward benchmark exposure, while focusing on areas of relative leadership and absolute strength.
Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into February.
