From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
2023 is on the cusp of producing as many days with new highs greater than new lows in its first month as 2022 produced over the course of the entire year. Yet there are hurdles to overcome to convincingly argue that this recent strength is sustainable.
More Context: From a macro data and Fed policy perspective, this week holds the promise to be pivotal. That is no less true from a price perspective. More stocks making new highs than new lows is bull market behavior. The S&P 500 not clearing its December high (in the context of still declining longer-term trends) is not. In addition to further trend improvement, renewed expansion in the number of stocks making new highs and continued recovery in our industry group trend indicator would be evidence of rally sustainability. Our equity models aren’t waiting for “what ifs” and while the S&P 500 is an option, it’s not the only one. Our equity positioning is increasingly outside of the US and away from large-cap growth stocks.
In our Market Notes, we take a closer look at longer-term price trends, recent breadth improvements and paradigm shifts that are taking place within global equities.
