Was October 13th "The Bottom" for stocks?

January 30, 2023

By my work, everything started to improve for stocks after June 16th.

That was when the list of new 52-week lows peaked and stocks started the process of going up all the time, instead of going down all the time.

In bull markets, stocks go up. In bear markets they go down, not sure if you heard...

Anyway, these days I'm seeing a lot of investors pointing to October 13th as the market bottom, because that's when the S&P500 and some of the other indexes made their lows.

But by then, most stocks had already bottomed. It was only a few of those large-cap indexes left still falling.

That's why looking at market internals is so important to our process.

In fact, I was interviewed by Maria Bartiromo on national television the very next morning (Oct 14th), and I was telling her how stocks had already been in a bull market for months.

She looked at me like I was crazy. Go check the tape!

BUT BUT BUT, I do think there is something to point to from those October lows, it just has less to do with the U.S. stock market.

It's the International Equities that started their run on that day.

Look at the tremendous outperformance out of Emerging Markets, and more surprisingly it's the Developed Markets outside of North America that are leading the way.

The way I see it, by the time those October lows came around, most stocks were already been going up and to the right.

When you look at the new lows list, whether on the NYSE or the Nasdaq, there were very few stocks left still making new lows by that point.

The bottom for the U.S. Stock Market was in June.

BUT, like I said, there is some validity in that October 13th date.

See? I'm open minded....

Ok great.

"That's terrific JC, we know. You've told us repeatedly. But how the F&#K does it help us?"

It's a valid question and something I think we should address.

First of all, this is all further evidence (if you still need any by now), that if you just look at US Large-cap Indexes as a market gauge, you're not getting the full picture.

There are still people out there who think stocks are in a bear market and wondering when stocks will bottom.

That's only possible if you haven't done the work, and counted all this time how many are going up vs how many are going down.

Humans hate to do 3rd grade math. It's hilarious. Or sad. But definitely a good thing for those of us who have no problem doing basic arithmetic.

Now, for execution, I think anchoring to October 13th is a smart move when looking for relative strength, particularly from a global perspective.

And to be clear, it's not an either-or situation, it's an AND. We anchor to both June 16th AND October 13th, depending on what we're looking for.

From a risk management perspective, this June 16th date had been really helpful throughout July, August, September and October before stocks really started to rip higher.

The idea was, "We only want to be long a stock if it's above its June lows". This was a major theme for us for months and boy did it come in handy!

At this point stocks are well off those lows, so risk management using those levels is much less helpful now. But still a good case study to prepare yourself for future environments with similar circumstances.

Moving forward, we want to be buyers of any weakness.

We haven't seen much, especially with stocks absolutely ripping to start the new year.

But the evidence continues to pile up and our approach continues to be the following:

We want to spend more time looking for stocks to buy, than spending too much time looking for stocks to sell.

This is specifically the case from an intermediate-term time horizon - looking out weeks and months.

For day trades and swing trades counter-trend, it doesn't matter as much, or at all.

But if you're trying to make money THIS QUARTER, then this is how we're approaching things, continuing to approach things, to be clear.

All of our Trades are detailed here - with entry points and targets.

If you're not already a Premium Member, just email us here and we'll get you set up.

In the meantime, I understand that not everyone is an "Intermediate-term" trader or investor. I get that.

For me, however, it's the sweet spot. This is the "least difficult" time frame to make money, in my opinion.

But I have grown my Day Trading account over the past few months and I'm a profitable day trader for the first time in my life. But I can't take the credit for that one. Thanks Kimmy ;)

And speaking of not taking credit, boy has my income portfolio done well in this market. Sean McLaughlin is our Master Options Trader and he has helped me pull money from the market consistently since launching our Income Portfolio last Spring.

I'm starting to find that I might be the most useless one here at ASC, with both Kimmy and Sean helping me make a ton of money.

The difference here is that in our Paid To Play Options Income Portfolio, we're not focusing on "home run" trades trying to knock one out of the park.

We're focused only on the highest probability trades.

In other words, we've just been stringing together base hits instead of looking for the home run!

This is how we roll in our Paid to Play trading strategy.

And now I have a steady stream of income being pulled from the market and into my overall portfolio regularly.

My focus in 2023 is making this a larger portion of my overall portfolio - and teaching you how to do it, too.

It is by far my most successful income stream.

And it can be yours.

If you join Paid to Play, you won’t just get elite-level trading tools and an income-producing trading strategy.

I’m putting the finishing touches on an exclusive 3-day mini course designed to make you a master of this trading strategy even if you’ve never touched a trade like this in your life.

In short, NOW is the time to get into Paid to Play.

I know I’m going to make income in 2023 thanks to this strategy, just like I did in 2022.

Join us and you can, too.

Just click HERE to lock in your Paid to Play membership.

(And if you have any questions about Paid to Play, call our team at 323-421-7910 right now and we’ll cover everything you need to know!)

- JC