From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.
With stocks experiencing week-to-week swings at a nearly unprecedented level, zooming out and keeping a bigger picture in mind is an essential. The Value Line Geometric Index’s affinity for round numbers makes this an easier exercise.
Why It Matters: The Value Line Geometric Index (a broad proxy for the median US stock) is in the middle of the range between 500 and 600 that has been intact since Memorial Day. Prior to that it spent 15 months moving from 600 to 700 and then back to 600. Looking back over the past 15 years, round numbers have acted as magnets for this index. If this tendency holds, a break above the August peak could clear the way for a test of its high near 700. Conversely, breaking below the September low could lead to a test of 400, a level seen during the COVID sell-off & recovery. Which way it breaks remains to be seen - but the lines have been drawn.
