From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Commodity Trend Rolls Over
You need to squint to see it, but the long-term trend in the CRB Commodity index fell last week for the first time since the end of 2020.
The Details: This uptrend, the most persistent since 2002-2006, lasted 94 weeks. During that period, the CRB index was up nearly 70%. Over the past two decades, the CRB index has been trending higher 60% of the time and has risen at a 7.3% annual rate during those periods. It has fallen at 5.5% annual rate during the remaining 40% of the time (when the long-term trend has been falling).
More Context: Commodities are still in positive territory for 2022, but are as far off their highs as are stocks. They now join stocks and bonds in downtrends, making an already unprecedented market environment even more challenging from an asset allocation perspective.
Our Deeper Look looks at the absolute and relative trends across the market as we move into the final quarter of the year.
