What's It Going To Take?

July 13, 2022

"JC what's on your mind these days?"

I get asked this a lot. So it keeps me on my toes.

But it's a great exercise, even if you're not being asked regularly by colleagues and journalists.

So what is on my mind?

It's this.

It's still this.

It's the strong Dollar preventing stocks and crypto assets from rising in price:

The negative correlation remains incredibly strong here.

And yes, I'm aware that in the late 90s the Dollar was strong and so were stocks.

And if this were the late 90s then we'd approach the market accordingly.

But's NOT the late 90s.

It's 2022.

And we have to make portfolio decisions based on today's correlations, not the correlations that may or may not have been in place 25 years ago.

So for my money, it's like this:

The Dollar has put a ton of pressure on Stocks, Bitcoin and Gold.

So this to me is one of those kumbaya moments where Permabulls, Bitcoin Maxis, Crypto Crazies and Gold bugs can all get along.

They're all waiting for a weaker Dollar to be able to make any progress.

How long this scenario remains in place, I don't know.

But this is where I think we are today.

What about you? What do you think?

Kumbaya moment?

Feel free to chime in here.

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