Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Waiting Out the Rain Showers

JC Parets
June 9, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In Milwaukee, early June days when the temperature struggles to even get into the 60's happen almost every year. 

I've lived here long enough at this point (more than half my life) that it's not really a surprise anymore. For the first few years I lived here, I believed friends and family when they reassured me that it was "unseasonably cold." But I caught on soon enough.

In fact, it was 55 degrees and overcast here just yesterday. It had been raining off and on all day.  

I have no problem with any of those conditions – I’m not writing this note to complain about the weather. While I don’t think of it as Summer and it’s not what I was looking forward to, I can adjust. 

At this time of year, I want to think of working outside in the sunshine, wearing sandals and shorts, transplanting seedlings, and watching the garden grow. Instead, yesterday I was inside drinking hot tea and not worrying about whether turning on the oven to bake bread would overheat the kitchen. Rather than looking to cool off, I was figuring out ways to warm up.

Whether it is unseasonable or not doesn't really matter. We need to take the weather conditions as they are, not as we expected them to be or as we hoped they would be. I can see the rain, I can feel the temperature, I can act accordingly. It doesn't matter that the average daily high in Milwaukee in June is above 70 degrees. This week the actual high was below the average low.

We see this sort of situation in other walks of life:

Card players need to play the hand that is dealt them.

Batters can only work with what the pitcher delivers.

Investors need to adjust to market conditions as they are.

It's okay to develop expectations and hopes, but those need to be tempered by reality. Often it is warm and sunny in June. But when it isn't, heading inside and putting on another layer makes good sense. From an investing perspective, there are a lot of times when stocks are heading higher and leaning into opportunities can pay dividends. When that is not the case (like now), a less is more approach can help preserve financial and emotional health.

I don't want to stand out in the cold rain today because it is normally warmer than this in June. I'd rather wait until conditions have improved and be well-positioned to take advantage of them when they do. 

This morning, the sun came out and the mercury moved higher. It feels like summer again, and I plan to get outside and take advantage of a beautiful day. 

I'm looking forward to when that is the case for the stock market, as well.

 

 

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