Word of the Day: Thrust

Louis Sykes
March 30, 2022

One of the hallmarks of the beginning stages of new trends, irrespective of asset class, is the thrust.

  • Thrust: push suddenly or violently in a specified direction.

There are many different ways markets can thrust, but it's commonly one of two:

  • momentum; or
  • breadth.

In Monday's letter, we discussed that if Bitcoin could close in the green, it'd be the first time it's seen seven consecutive positive closes since the July short squeeze.

Fast-forward, we're now sitting on eight with a probability of nine green candles in a row:

In Bitcoin's entire history, it's only experienced four periods of nine consecutive green candles -- and each of these times marked the beginnings of more structural long-term uptrends.

The second way to quantify thrusts is through breadth, and it tells the same story.

The quick caveat here is that quantifying crypto breadth becomes shaky over longer time frames because of the extreme survivorship bias; categorizing cryptos (for instance, by the top 50 or those over $1B in market cap) are constantly changing.

This makes crypto breadth analysis far more complex and nuanced than in traditional markets.

Nevertheless, when we look over shorter time frames to try to minimize the impact of this drift, we're seeing an increase in participation.

But we don't really need to quantify this given all the setups we're seeing out there in the alts.

The percentage of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap above their 30-day moving average is at its highest level going back to September:

When you've studied momentum as much as we have in markets, these types of thrusts proceeding the beginnings of new structural trends make absolute sense.

This is only another supportive data point leaning in favor that the Bitcoin macro bear has concluded.

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Thanks for reading and please let us know if you have any questions!

Allstarcharts Team

 

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