From the desk of Willie Delwiche.
Key Takeaway: There’s nothing more bullish than new all-time highs, and there was plenty to go around as we reviewed our monthly charts over the weekend. It’s no wonder that optimism is resurfacing as stocks indexes up and down the cap-scale push to new records. Whether current sentiment will develop into the type of risk-seeking fervor that brought us into the year is unseen. But bulls continue to rise, and interestingly so do the bears. The AAII and II bears ticked higher last week, with II bears reaching levels not seen since May of last year. The backdrop is turning to optimism, but there's still enough pessimism among investors to keep sentiment off of the risk side of the scale.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Equity Love Affair Undiminished
Equity ETF’s have seen half-a-trillion dollars of inflows so far this year. Bonds have seen a fraction of that. Commodity ETF’s have struggled to attract attention despite DBC (a broad commodity ETF) gaining nearly twice as much as SPY (S&P 500 ETF) this year. For a variety of reasons, commodities remain unloved and under-owned from an asset allocation perspective. Opportunity set decisions are going to weigh heavily on portfolio performance in coming years.
