Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Oops, I did it again

JC Parets
September 30, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We see what we are thinking about. The first time I really became aware of this was a few years ago after we bought our Subaru. I had gone from not thinking at all about Subarus to driving one and now I was surprised to see how many other Subarus were on the road. I realized quickly that I was not an automotive trend-setter, but just being impacted by the way our brains work.   

It happened again recently, though this time with a more exciting car. 

I flew into Reagan National airport in Washington, DC, on a recent trip to visit family in Maryland. 

I met up with my sister when I arrived and headed over to the rental car counter. I had reserved a four-door mid-sized model but what I got instead was a two-door sports car. A convertible Ford Mustang, to be exact. To be clear, they didn’t force the car on me. The agent asked if it would be okay and I quickly agreed.

We got to the car, put the top down, and headed out into Friday afternoon rush-hour traffic. Driving around the rural Maryland roads over the next two days, I was struck by just how many other Mustangs we saw on the road. It's possible there were actually more Mustangs in that region than where I normally drive. But I'm out there about once a year and I can't recall ever seeing as many as I did on this trip.

This probably wasn’t actually about the number of Mustangs on the road. I think confirmation bias was the culprit in this situation. This is the idea that you end up finding what you are looking for and noticing what you are thinking about. I was driving a Mustang and thinking about Mustangs more than usual. Therefore, I was noticing them on the road, in parking lots, and everywhere I went.

Understanding confirmation bias doesn’t mean we won’t fall under its spell. I see it happening right now when it comes to stock market sentiment. Are there actually more bears and is pessimism actually more widespread or are we thinking about it more and looking for it and so becoming more prone to notice it? Noticing the anecdote does not mean it is reflected in the data.

Discussions about confirmation bias usually come with warnings. But if we know this about ourselves, I say we use it to our advantage. Remember, our mindset matters.

We can look for the good things.

We can focus on positive developments.

We can assume the best about the people.

It can be surprising what happens when we give our attention to these positive things.

After all, there’s good and bad out there. We can fill up on either. It's our choice.

If we look for those who are grumpy and toxic, you can bet we will find them. If we search for the optimistic and uplifting, that is what we will see.

If you stop thinking about something, you probably won't see it anymore. 

I returned my rental car a few days ago and flew back to Milwaukee.

I haven’t noticed a single Mustang on the road yet…  

 

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