What The Heck Is Going On???
I see the S&P500 about half way to our target in a very normal, standard uptrend, very similar to so many that we've seen come before it.
For you guys following along, this obviously isn't a surprise to us. This is exactly what we've been pounding the table on for about 10 months now. In fact, if this was not happening, then that would be the surprise.
This is all pretty standard stuff guys. Stocks breaking out to new highs, in many cases, just beginning new bull markets, and people don't want to believe it. Go study history, lol, this is how bull markets start. We've seen it before and we'll see it again. I promise.
The more angry they get and the more frustrated they become with themselves for not being long enough, the further stocks have to run to the upside. It's just math.
Quick History Lesson
I don't think I need to run you through 1000 charts all pointing to the same thing. I've already been doing that for you. You've got the data. You have the charts. Feel free to go through them all. In fact, I encourage it.
Instead, for today, let me point you to what's got my attention and the stuff I've been reading.
The first chart comes from legend Walter Deemer. This guy is the man, trading actively for almost 60 years now. He's forgotten more market cycles than most of us will ever see.
Here he's pointing to the rise & fall of RCA (Radio Corp of America).
Does this chart look familiar?
It looks just like GameStop.
You see, this has happened before, and it will happen again.
These bubbles and collapses can happen over years, and they can also happen over days. But the patterns are the same. The sentiment shifts are the same. And the story is EXACTLY the same, just with different characters.
Check out my podcast with Walter Deemer from back in 2019.
Take Their Money With A Smile
Did you see the article in the Financial Times on Friday?
Holy holy holy smokes!!!
This is your competition folks!
And it gets worse...
Some people love making donations to the market. They can't throw their money away fast enough!
It's our job as investors to go there, pick it all up, and put it in our pockets.
"But JC, how are you so insensitive?"
It takes practice.
But yea, I couldn't care less about anyone else when it comes to the market. Other people losing money is not my problem. That's their problem. I have my own issues to deal with.
Market participation is a very selfish endeavor. That's where some people are confused.
If you're in the market for any other reason than to make money, then you're an idiot.
Oh you're buying this stock to screw over the hedge funds? You're a moron.
You made a bad bet, too bad.
You lost your rent or mortgage because you were YOLOing some garbage stock they were pumping on TV? Good. Now you know not to do that anymore. That's how life works.
We don't have to babysit adults. They can make their own decisions.
My friend Jay Woods, former Floor Governor of the New York Stock Exchange put out a good note this week where he goes over some of the hard lessons he had to learn early in his career.
Again, same story, different characters. We see it every day, it just doesn't always make it on to your evening news. When it does, you know the people making a big deal about it know nothing about how the world works.
The GameStop ride to the moon and back continues to captivate both Wall St and Main Street. You just can’t get away from it.
Now that the stock has come crashing back to Earth, the blame game is in full force. Who ever saw this coming?
Well - just about everyone.
Conspiracy theories, the suits, a “rigged” system and a wave of new, young clueless traders are at the top the blame list. It’s easy to point fingers, but pointing them at the markets newest participants is just wrong.
Check out his full post and the story about when Jay first bought Sun TV stock, and the disaster that followed....
Please Save Me From Myself
What's funny is that last night I opened a gambling account on draftkings and was even able to make a deposit, all within about 3 minutes. I’m a terrible gambler and know next to nothing about it. Will the media write articles about how much money I’m about to lose and how other people are responsible for my stupid decisions?
I’m an adult. If I want to be a moron, it’s no one’s fault but my own. If I want to bet my mortgage on a coin toss, then I’m an asshole, and it’s not draftkings fault, it’s not the SECs fault, it’s not Elon Musks fault or even Reddit. It’s on me. Period.
Obviously....
No one should feel bad for me, no matter how stupid my bets might be. It’s not anyone’s problem but mine, my family's and the IRS. I don’t understand why anyone should feel any sympathy for me whatsoever. Don’t people have their own problems? Why should my problems be theirs too?
In case you're wondering, the account opening experience was a lot like Robinhood: Clean, easy, and if you lose money it's your fault, not anyone else's. Grow up!
Big Week Ahead!
We've got a new Under-The-Hood report dropping later today as well as a discussion about the Marijuana stocks. So make sure to check out the blog for all the updates.
I had a few TV hits last week that I'll be publishing as well. You can only imagine what I told them....
Someone's gotta give it to them straight. And I think they appreciate that, some of them anyway....
Here's a behind the scenes look at me on Bloomberg. Remember, we were offsite this week so we had to make do with what we had.
That's Matt from our Video team up there standing on the chair blocking out the sun. And yes, those are La Croix cans holding up my laptop.
TV isn't always as glamorous as it might look....
Not to mention the peanut gallery standing by giggling at us the whole thing like little school girls. How did I stay focused???? I have no idea, to be honest.
Anyway, good time this week. I'm lucky to have the team we have. You're lucky too! They make everything better. So let's keep them happy. Send Strazza or Willie a note and say what's up. Or give Peter a shout for the amazing customer experience.
LOL, Because It's True
This cartoon was shared by Mark Ungewitter, a great follow on Twitter if you're not already following him.
What got your attention this weekend?
Let's discuss.