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Price Still Trumps News

May 7, 2019

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

I couldn't help but see many of the same folks who were happy about Trump's "Trade Deal" tweets when they drove the stock market higher complaining as his tweets sent Futures lower on Sunday night and again today after the bell.

I thought this might be a good time to remind ourselves of something.

First off, you don't have to give the profits back because price went up based on a tweet and you still have to bear your losses if prices go down based on a tweet.

Same goes for volume and all other supplemental indicators to price.

It doesn't matter what moves price (outside of an exchange error), the quote you'll see in your brokerage account is the same. If your stock falls 10 points, you're still down 10 points. It doesn't matter "why" it moved.

You can't bring your receipt and return it because you disagree with the outcome.

It doesn't work like that.

Headlines like the ones below cut both ways. Sometimes they're interpreted as a positive by the market...other times a negative.

It's all relative, so there's really no such thing as "good" or "bad" news. It's all about better, worse, or in-line with expectations.

Either way, we approach them with the same lens as we do all other movements in the market...by ignoring the "why" and simply focusing on the "what" (price action).

At the end of the day, our job is to manage risk and how we do that is by paying attention to price levels outlined in our analysis, not by changing our mind with each new piece of market-moving data that emerges.

Last Wednesday I outlined the level's we're watching in the US Indexes.

Despite all the noise, we're still focusing on those former highs.

That's what we're watching. How about you?

- Bruni

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