Where Is The Rest Of The World?

JC Parets
December 12, 2018

There is a reason we look at the stock market from a global perspective. It's because we invest in a global market. Stocks in America weren't going up the past couple of years because of what was happening in DC or New York. Stocks in the U.S. were going up because stocks all over the world were going up.

That changed earlier this year. While U.S. stocks keep making new highs through the Summer, global markets were not participating.

The question was simple: Were we going to get rotation back into Emerging Markets, Europe and other under performing areas around the world? Or was the U.S. just the last man standing and would catch down to the rest of the world. It's clearly been the latter as stocks have come off significantly this Fall.

For clues about what we should expect in U.S. stocks, I think it's important to continue to value the data coming in from global indexes. 

This is a chart of the top 40 largest Stock Market Indexes around the world, equally-weighted with the S&P500 overlaid above it. That divergence really stands out this year, as it did at the 2015 top for the S&P500. We want to look for bottoms in both of these as evidence that stocks are going higher:

We've yet to see that evidence. It's just been more selling. If we can get back above those September highs in the global index, then we can start talking about the trend changing. In the meantime, it still looks like we'll be buying them at lower levels.

Next Tuesday is our Monthly Video Conference Call for Premium Members of Allstarcharts. I encourage you to start a 30 day Risk free trial and join us live so you can see which stocks we're buying and which ones we're selling. I'll walk you through the entire process from the top/down starting with a global perspective and working our way down to individual risk vs reward opportunities in equities and ETFs.

Click here to start your trial and join us for the call.

JC

 

Filed Under: