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The biggest question I have right now

August 21, 2023

Are we all just going to assume that these consolidations in interest rates are about to resolve higher?

Seems like everyone around me considers this breakout to be foregone conclusion:

I don't quite see it that way.

You know what happens when you Assume: You make an Ass of U and Me.

I don't assume anything.

I need to see it first.

Meanwhile, how about the 2yr yield rolling over already while all eyes are focused on the 10yr yield making new highs?

2s have been a great leading indicator.

Is that going to change now?

I don't know. I don't think so.

And since I definitely don't know what the market is going to do next, all I can do is look for clues and try to ask the right questions.

That's what I'm doing here.

Are interest rates definitely about to break out?

Or is now finally the time to buy bonds?

I started to nibble a bit on Friday. Let's see what kind of follow through, if any, we get this week, before adding to positions.

As far as the stock market is concerned, nothing could be better for the S&P500 than the bond market stopping its collapse.

With bonds falling, renewed pressure is being put on Tech stocks.

So as long as Tech is below those late 2021 highs, don't expect the S&P500 to make any progress at all.

Technology represents almost 30% of the S&P500 and over half the Nasdaq100.

So with Tech stuck below this overhead supply, these indexes aren't going anywhere.

I think it's all up to the bond market.

This is the bully that's pushing these things around.

We'll discuss it all on Wednesday night during our LIVE Mid-Month Conference Call.

Premium Members register here, if you haven't already.

We'll get going LIVE on Wednesday @ 6PM ET.

See you t here!

JC

 

 

 

 

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