Scanning through the plays that appear in the latest All Star Chart Quarterly Playbook, I see many that have pulled back into support levels and/or near levels that we previously labeled as "bullish above." This offers a clue that perhaps stocks are heading into a rest period. We've had a good run off the "Christmas Miracle" bottom and maybe here's where stocks catch their breath?
With that as a backdrop, I scanned our universe of liquid ETF names and found a candidate to put an income trade on to benefit from any sideways action we may be headed into.
With earnings season in full swing, unique opportunities with options often spring up.
It's pretty common for the prices paid for options to increase leading up to earnings announcements. It's a classic example of the battle of fear and greed playing out. On one hand you've got nervous shareholders purchasing insurance to protect themselves from any serious adverse price action, bidding the prices of puts higher. On the other hand, you've got shark speculators looking to participate in a sharp reaction to make a quick buck in either direction, adding further buying pressure to both puts and calls.
The astute options participant can use this battle to leverage into his own vision of the big picture.
I don't make it my primary business to go against the trend. Sure, it can be pretty satisfying and certainly pays well to nail a turn in a major trend. But it's a tricky business that has left behind a graveyard of wannabe Heroes.
But every so often the stars align, risk is clearly defined, and supporting evidence suggests a turn may be at hand.
The All Star Charts team has been drawing attention to financials and banks recently, putting forth the idea that the broader markets likely will not rally without banks participating:
We’re in the camp that Interest Rates in the US and Globally are set to mean-revert over the coming weeks and months, and if we’re right, that should benefit Equities as an asset class and Financials due to the rotation they’ve seen over the past several months.
And since we're believers that the market is going higher from here, logic dictates we should be looking for opportunities in the banks.
ASC published a piece on Regional Banks earlier in the week highlighting a handful of names to keep an eye on for upside should certain levels be pierced. Yesterday, we had our first name pop up and declare it may be ready.
There's an opportunity developing out on the farm -- everyone's favorite farming machinery (and apparel?) company is setting up for a big harvest. While investors should take notice, opportunistic trader hunters like us have spotted a way to get in/out with a quick profitable trade before volatile weather appears on the horizon to spoil all our hard work.
One of the most powerfully bullish patterns that I know involves an instrument which gaps higher on explosive volume, builds on those gains for a day or so, then spends the next week or two consolidating those gains on declining volume. This price action tires out the fast money that entered the game on the breakout and attracts opportunistic bears looking for a reversion back to the mean. The chart pattern begins to resemble a coiled spring. And when it Pops!? -- the next move can be powerfully higher and sustainable.
One of the more compelling opportunities in the All Star Charts Q3 Playbook centered around the Rails sector. Several stocks there are setting up for big moves, and with an accommodating economy, I don't see how rail stocks won't start participating soon.
I love getting involved in stocks breaking out to new all time highs. I love it even more when I can leverage into the play with long options when volatility is low. The bang for the buck if you get hold of a big mover is so much more powerful.
We've got one of these opportunities setting up in the financial sector and it has my attention.
In last night's All Star Options Conference call, JC laid out a case for why interest rates look to be at an inflection point -- the takeaway being that a big move is likely to happen from here. The problem is, we're just as likely to rise as we are to fall. What to do?
While this type of directional indecision is likely to give pause to a straight equities player, we options traders can position ourselves to profit in either direction without having to pick one!
Stocks are set to rip higher at the open today, which makes it tough to buy into some bullish opportunities here as they all will be running away from us. However, there is one name setting up where today's enthusiasm should help us push through some minor resistance and get us targeting new all-time highs that were last seen back in September.
If broader markets are going to continue higher, we've got to expect the banks to participate and even lead. If that's the case, we're limiting our risk and betting on one of the bluest of the Blue Chips breaking into blue skies.